Game quality

How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Jacoby Brissett — 2024 Every split →

Adj EPA / dropback

-0.201

Raw EPA / dropback

-0.207

Dropbacks

179

Turnover EPA

-11.7

WPA

-0.93

Week	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
1	CIN	25	-0.097	-0.079	-0.018	-2.4	0 / 0	+0.0	1	+0.2	+0.07	+1.1
2	SEA	30	-0.024	-0.006	-0.019	-0.7	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-6.2	-0.20	-4.1
3	NYJ	23	-0.453	-0.477	+0.024	-10.4	0 / 0	+0.0	5	-9.2	-0.22	+6.2
4	SF	38	-0.403	-0.415	+0.012	-15.3	1 / 1	-11.7	6	-9.6	-0.14	-8.5
5	MIA	35	-0.251	-0.251	+0.000	-8.8	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.6	-0.72	-4.4
8	NYJ	26	+0.144	+0.106	+0.039	+3.8	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.9	+0.30	-0.1
17	LAC	2	-1.082	-1.091	+0.009	-2.2	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	-0.01	-30.4

How the ratings are built

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.