Game quality

How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Jared Goff — 2026 Every split →

Adj EPA / dropback

+0.250

Raw EPA / dropback

+0.266

Dropbacks

264

Turnover EPA

-3.3

WPA

+1.52

Week	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
1	NO	40	+0.135	+0.146	-0.011	+5.4	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-0.5	-0.03	-2.9
2	BUF	42	+0.488	+0.442	+0.046	+20.5	0 / 0	+0.0	4	-7.7	+0.04	+6.0
3	NYJ	34	+0.232	+0.357	-0.125	+7.9	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-4.4	+0.65	+6.9
4	CAR	53	+0.186	+0.233	-0.046	+9.9	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-0.4	+0.18	-1.8
5	ARI	33	+0.400	+0.496	-0.095	+13.2	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-5.4	+0.26	+0.3
7	GB	33	+0.286	+0.279	+0.007	+9.4	0 / 0	+0.0	1	-1.4	+0.38	-1.0
8	MIN	29	-0.008	-0.144	+0.136	-0.2	1 / 0	-3.3	4	-6.7	+0.05	+2.1

How the ratings are built

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.