Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jameis Winston — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.177
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.116
Dropbacks
174
Turnover EPA
-26.0
WPA
-0.18
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LA | 29 | -0.550 | -0.569 | +0.019 | -15.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -1.8 | -0.22 | -25.3 |
| 3 | TEN | 25 | -0.339 | -0.245 | -0.094 | -8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.05 | -4.8 |
| 4 | ARI | 34 | +0.006 | +0.114 | -0.108 | +0.2 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.11 | +1.3 |
| 5 | WAS | 56 | +0.106 | +0.189 | -0.083 | +5.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.08 | -0.3 |
| 6 | NO | 30 | -0.418 | -0.400 | -0.018 | -12.5 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 4 | -5.4 | -0.11 | -15.6 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.