Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Geno Smith — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.127
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.146
Dropbacks
264
Turnover EPA
-20.6
WPA
+0.34
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 24 | +0.329 | +0.406 | -0.077 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.8 |
| 2 | GB | 44 | +0.098 | +0.098 | +0.001 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.03 | +5.9 |
| 3 | DET | 44 | +0.229 | +0.247 | -0.018 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 5 | -11.3 | +0.41 | +14.8 |
| 4 | CHI | 18 | -0.269 | -0.270 | +0.001 | -4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.19 | -11.4 |
| 5 | CLE | 34 | -0.275 | -0.333 | +0.058 | -9.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 4 | -11.0 | -0.62 | -9.0 |
| 6 | NE | 33 | +0.217 | +0.178 | +0.039 | +7.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| 7 | MIA | 33 | +0.251 | +0.370 | -0.119 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.22 | +11.2 |
| 8 | LV | 34 | +0.291 | +0.345 | -0.054 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.25 | +10.8 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.