Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kirk Cousins — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.188
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.185
Dropbacks
296
Turnover EPA
-19.8
WPA
+1.82
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 30 | -0.118 | +0.013 | -0.131 | -3.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +0.7 |
| 2 | LAC | 31 | +0.263 | +0.193 | +0.070 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.31 | +2.9 |
| 3 | NO | 38 | +0.228 | +0.236 | -0.008 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.37 | +8.6 |
| 4 | KC | 50 | +0.227 | +0.196 | +0.032 | +11.4 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -3.0 |
| 5 | NE | 31 | +0.336 | +0.297 | +0.039 | +10.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.04 | +0.4 |
| 6 | BUF | 41 | +0.322 | +0.280 | +0.042 | +13.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | -9.7 |
| 7 | LA | 48 | -0.121 | -0.153 | +0.032 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.20 | -7.9 |
| 8 | NYJ | 27 | +0.492 | +0.607 | -0.116 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.56 | +15.1 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.