Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin: offence minus defence EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. Win exp: how often a team with that margin wins (a 55% win was close to a coin flip). Win prob range: the lowest and highest in-game win chance.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC W | 17–10 | +11.5dog 4.5 | +0.03 → +0.10 | -0.18 → -0.24 | +0.33 | 98%raw 94% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 3 |
| @ BAL L | 10–17 | -11.5fav 4.5 | -0.18 → -0.15 | +0.03 → -0.05 | -0.10 | 26%raw 6% | 1% – 55% | 3 / 0 |
| DET L | 31–34 | +4.5dog 7.5 | +0.13 → +0.18 | +0.22 → +0.09 | +0.09 | 73%raw 23% | 3% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 34–31 | -4.5fav 7.5 | +0.22 → +0.19 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.14 | 83%raw 77% | 7% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BAL | 41 | +0.271 | +0.190 | +0.081 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.31 | +13.6 |
| Jared Goff | DET | SF | 43 | +0.236 | +0.163 | +0.073 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.11 | -1.5 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | DET | 33 | +0.148 | +0.201 | -0.053 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.01 | +2.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | KC | 41 | -0.066 | -0.123 | +0.057 | -2.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.7 | 4 | -10.9 | -0.33 | -5.5 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.