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Kicker scoring and forecast wind (2026-10-21)
Data:
- 3,764 outdoor games, 2006–2025 (7,528 team-games).
- GFS MOS forecast wind (backtests/wind_unders/games_with_forecast.csv).
- Per team-game kicking from nflverse PBP (extract_kicks.py).
Expectation: kicker points = 2.586 + 0.202 × implied team total, from the closing total and spread.
| Forecast wind (mph) | team-games | kicker pts actual | expected | residual (95% CI95% confidence intervalThe range the true value is plausibly in. If this range includes zero, we cannot rule out that the real effect is nothing at all.) | 2006–15 | 2016–25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 5 | 1,196 | 7.25 | 7.06 | +0.19 (+0.01, +0.37) | +0.13 | +0.24 |
| 5–10 | 3,296 | 7.11 | 7.03 | +0.08 | +0.26 | −0.12 |
| 10–12 | 1,138 | 7.20 | 7.02 | +0.17 | +0.30 | +0.03 |
| 12–15 | 1,124 | 6.65 | 6.99 | −0.35 (−0.53, −0.16) | −0.18 | −0.49 |
| 15+ | 774 | 6.47 | 6.87 | −0.40 (−0.63, −0.17) | −0.31 | −0.50 |
| 12+ | 1,898 | 6.57 | 6.94 | −0.37 (−0.51, −0.23) | −0.24 | −0.50 |
Other results: - FG made: −0.09 per team-game at 12+ mph (−0.095 / −0.089 by half). FG attempts −0.07. - Accuracy: 40+ yard FG% 72.2% calm vs 68.2% at 12+ mph; 50+ yard 63.0% vs 56.9%. Kickers also try fewer 50+ yarders (0.29 vs 0.26 per game). - The closing total barely moves: implied team total 22.0 calm vs 21.5 at 12+ mph. - P(under), holding the team total at 22:
| line | calm | 12+ mph |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 34% | 39% |
| 6.5 | 45% | 50% |
| 7.5 | 56% | 62% |
| 8.5 | 66% | 71% |
Verdict
Wind cuts kicker scoring well beyond what the game total implies. If kicker lines are set off team totals, windy unders are +EV at a ~5% cut.
Untested: whether books already shade kicker lines in wind. The betting rule is frozen in PREREG.md before any price is seen.
⚠ The wind idea itself came from an observed-wind screen (see backtests/wind_unders). Kicker points is a new outcome, but not an independent discovery.