Research Library

Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the markdown under backtests/ and docs/ — nothing to register, a new file shows up here automatically. Negative results are kept deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive. Terms used throughout are defined in the glossary.

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All areas backtests bet_timing cfb_eval clv_line_adjustment college_hockey_eval college_to_nfl defense_fantasy devig_calibration docs elway_review ev_clv_prereg_2026_09 ev_record_2026_08 fantasy_eval fantasy_model_audit hr_derby injury_impact kalshi_ingame kalshi_nfl kalshi_weather kelly_sim kicker_dst kyler_cod leg_correlation march_bracket middles ncaab_eval nfl_alt_ladders nfl_bounceback nfl_context_signals nfl_edges nfl_first_td nfl_game_quality nfl_kicker_wind nfl_middles nfl_ml_anchor nfl_playcaller_totals nfl_player_splits nfl_prop_usage nfl_props_bias nfl_q1_forward nfl_q1_passing_shape nfl_receptions_low_line nfl_schedule_edges nfl_title_predictability nfl_topdown nfl_war nhl_eval pickem pickem_tiebreak player_movement preseason_signal qb_handedness qb_weather split_miner stable_filter_audit stacking_eval strategies tennis_eval weather_ftn_value wind_unders

wind_unders · 2

Wind unders on forecast wind — findings (2026-10-17) 2026-10-17 · 2kb

Rules: PREREG.md (written before any forecast data was pulled). Data: GFS MOS (MAV) from the IEM archive, one station per stadium (mos/chosen.txt), 2006–2025 outdoor/open-roof US games (n=3,925, forecast found for all). Odds: nflverse closing total and under_o…

backtests/wind_unders/FINDINGS.md

Wind unders on FORECAST wind — pre-registration (2026-10-17, written before any forecast data was pulled) 2026-10-17 · 1kb

Question: does "bet the under when wind is 15+ mph" survive when the wind is the FORECAST a bettor had before kickoff, rather than the observed game wind (look-ahead) used in the heuristic scan?

backtests/wind_unders/PREREG.md