Research Library
Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the
markdown under backtests/ and docs/ — nothing to
register, a new file shows up here automatically. Negative results are kept
deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive.
Terms used throughout are defined in the glossary.
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pickem · 10
NFL survivor pools: which strategy earns the most pot equity? (2026-10-24)
survivor_sim.py (strategies fixed in its docstring before running) → survivor_sim_results.json, survivor_sim_rows.csv, survivor_actual_paths.csv. 2010-2025, 16 seasons, 1,000 simulated seasons each, outcomes drawn from the devigged closing moneyline. Rules: on…
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_SURVIVOR.md
Survivor strategies vs the REAL ESPN field, 2020-2025 (2026-10-24)
survivor_sim.py had to model the other players. ESPN's free survivor game publishes every week's pick count per team (public gambit API, 2020+: scripts/nfl/espn_survivor_picks.py → [redacted], survivor_pick_shares; ~0.2-1.2M entries in week 1). survi…
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_SURVIVOR_REAL.md
$2,500 across 24 small confidence pools (2026-10-24)
portfolio_sim.py → portfolio_sim_results.json. Always-favorite (ordered by market probability) in every league; each league has its own rivals; payout top 3 = 50/30/20 of the pot; $104 a league; 2014-2025 seasons.
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_PORTFOLIO.md
Do pick'em players get gutsier late, or when behind? (2026-10-19)
Pre-registered in desperation_test.py (commit 1fc4334, before any result). Data: our Yahoo pool, 2025 wk 1-12 and 2026 wk 1-6, 7,237 usable picks from 62 member-seasons (week 1 dropped: no standings). Overall underdog rate 18.8%. Controls: spread bin + member …
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_DESPERATION_2026.md
How well does the public pick? — field baseline, 2014–2025
2026-09-13. field_baseline.py → field_baseline_results.json (gitignored). Source: NFL Pickwatch per-game pick shares, captured by scripts/nfl/capture_pickwatch.py into [redacted] (weekly cron, Tue 14:00 UTC). Lines and results come from nflverse, not…
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_FIELD_BASELINE.md
Winning a 30-Person Confidence Pool
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: pool_strategy_sim.py → pool_strategy_sim_results.json · 6,000 simulated seasons per regime · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_POOL_2026.md
Testing "always pick the favorite" — and why a Monte Carlo can't do it
2026-08-12. calibration_test.py, 6,937 REG games, 1999–2025.
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_CALIBRATION_2026.md
Season Prize vs Weekly Prize: Shoot for the Season
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: pool_ev_analysis.py → pool_ev_analysis_results.json · 4,000 simulated seasons per regime · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_EV_2026.md
Best Pick'em Strategy for 2026: Pick Every Favorite
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: strategy_search_2026.py → strategy_search_2026_results.json · Data: 2,119 REG games, 2018–2025 · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS_STRATEGY_2026.md
Confidence Pick'em — Honest Rebuild (2018–2025)
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: backtest_pickem.py → backtest_pickem_results.json · Sample: 2,119 completed regular-season games · Seed: 20260720
backtests/pickem/FINDINGS.md