Research Library
Every findings document in the repo, rendered. Sourced directly from the
markdown under backtests/ and docs/ — nothing to
register, a new file shows up here automatically. Negative results are kept
deliberately: most of what's here is a hypothesis that didn't survive.
Terms used throughout are defined in the glossary.
39 documents are private and not shown.
All areas
backtests
bet_timing
cfb_eval
clv_line_adjustment
college_hockey_eval
college_to_nfl
defense_fantasy
devig_calibration
docs
elway_review
ev_clv_prereg_2026_09
ev_record_2026_08
fantasy_eval
fantasy_model_audit
hr_derby
injury_impact
kalshi_ingame
kalshi_nfl
kalshi_weather
kelly_sim
kicker_dst
kyler_cod
leg_correlation
march_bracket
middles
ncaab_eval
nfl_alt_ladders
nfl_bounceback
nfl_context_signals
nfl_edges
nfl_first_td
nfl_game_quality
nfl_kicker_wind
nfl_middles
nfl_ml_anchor
nfl_playcaller_totals
nfl_player_splits
nfl_prop_usage
nfl_props_bias
nfl_q1_forward
nfl_q1_passing_shape
nfl_receptions_low_line
nfl_schedule_edges
nfl_title_predictability
nfl_topdown
nfl_war
nhl_eval
pickem
pickem_tiebreak
player_movement
preseason_signal
qb_handedness
qb_weather
split_miner
stable_filter_audit
stacking_eval
strategies
tennis_eval
weather_ftn_value
wind_unders
nhl_eval · 2
Do shift-derived ice time minutes improve shots-on-goal predictions? (2026-10-05)
Data: NHL shift charts 2021-22..2025-26 (6,936 games, ~5.3M shifts; 57 2024-25 games missing from the NHL feed) → player_games (TOI by EV/PP/PK + SOG). Regular season only. Scored 2022-23..2025-26: 169,298 player-games with ≥ 5 prior games. Every prediction is…
backtests/nhl_eval/FINDINGS_SOG_TOI.md
NHL Stacking v3 — De-Snooping Campaign Findings
Model: nhl_stacking_v3 (production's only currently-profitable model) Scope: honest, de-snooped performance measurement + hygiene-fix evaluation — NOT a search for new alpha Data: [redacted], 17,155 regular-season games, 2008–2024 (nhl_games join …
backtests/nhl_eval/FINDINGS.md