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nfl_prop_usage · 2
NFL Hierarchical Usage Model — Evaluation vs Baselines
Date: 2026-07-14 · Seed: 20260714 · Harness: model_usage.py → results/usage_model_results.json + results/usage_model_predictions.parquet (88,724 walk-forward player-week-prop rows, 88 folds, 2021–2024 test seasons, 3,000 MC samples/row).
backtests/nfl_prop_usage/FINDINGS.md
NFL Prop Usage Model — Design Doc (Step 1: data + walk-forward harness)
Status: data layer + fold generator only. No model is fit yet. Deterministic seed 20260714. House rules apply: judge downstream models vs devigged closing lines, walk-forward only, cluster bootstraps by game_id / player_week_id, honest negative results are val…
backtests/nfl_prop_usage/DESIGN.md