Research Library
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fantasy_eval · 5
Do the Injury-Aware Multipliers Actually Improve Projections?
shipped
Validation of commit 02fba14, which replaced the projection engine's injury multiplier table using results from backtests/nfl_context_signals/FINDINGS.md.
backtests/fantasy_eval/FINDINGS_INJURY_MULTIPLIERS.md
Our Fantasy Projections vs FantasyPros Expert Consensus (ECR)
Our side is the strict walk-forward regeneration from scripts/evaluate_fantasy_mae.py --dump-projections (2,438 player-weeks): the engine is fed one historical week at a time and may only use data from before the week it projects. Unlike the 2024 db rows, this…
backtests/fantasy_eval/FINDINGS_VS_ECR.md
The Close Band Can Be Improved (+2.5pp, ~half the ECR gap)
Date: 2026-07-20 · Harness: close_band_experiment.py · Sample: 12,510 close pairs of 56,046, 2025 weeks 5–17 · Seed: 20260719
backtests/fantasy_eval/FINDINGS_CLOSE_BAND.md
Start/Sit Decision Accuracy — 2025
Date: 2026-07-19 · Harness: start_sit_accuracy.py · Sample: 64,150 within-(week, position) pairs, 2025 weeks 5–17 · Seed: 20260719
backtests/fantasy_eval/FINDINGS_START_SIT.md
Snap Counts + Depth Charts Close ~30% of the ECR Gap
Date: 2026-07-19 · Season: 2025, weeks 7–17 · Harness: snap_depth_experiment.py → snap_depth_experiment_results.json · Seed: 20260719
backtests/fantasy_eval/FINDINGS_SNAP_DEPTH.md