Research Library
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college_hockey_eval · 7
College hockey calibration (2026-10-21)
Scripts: calibration_options.py, calibration_forward_2026.py, plus their _results.json.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_CALIBRATION.md
Starting goalie vs the market (2026-10-21)
Question: does knowing who starts in goal beat the college hockey moneyline?
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_GOALIE_STARTER_MARKET.md
Moneyline accuracy by series position (2026-10-17)
Script: series_position.py → series_position_results.json. Series = the same two teams meeting twice within 2 days; same rink = same home team both nights, home-and-home = home team swaps. Regular season only (March+ conference playoffs reported separately in …
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_SERIES_POSITION.md
College hockey player value: shot xG, zones, goalies, skaters (2026-10-10)
Scripts: scripts/college_hockey/build_shot_xg.py (fit + write), scripts/college_hockey/goalie_value.py, geometry in [redacted]. Results JSON next to this file.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_SHOT_XG.md
College hockey betting angles backlog (2026-09-29)
Context. The model loses to the market (FINDINGS_MODEL_VS_MARKET.md): log loss 0.625 vs 0.603. Fading it also loses. Anything that squeezes more prediction out of the same stats is dead. These angles are timing ones, or use information the line may not have.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/ANGLES_BACKLOG.md
Pre-registration: roster turnover vs the October market (2026-27)
Frozen 2026-09-29, before the season's first puck drop on 2026-10-02. The commit containing this file, forward_2026_team_ratings.json and roster_turnover_forward.py is the record. Nothing in them changes after 2026-10-02. Any later change goes in an "Amendment…
backtests/college_hockey_eval/PREREG_ROSTER_TURNOVER_2026.md
College hockey model vs the betting market (first comparison, 2026-09-29)
The market is better than the model, and the model adds nothing to it.
backtests/college_hockey_eval/FINDINGS_MODEL_VS_MARKET.md