Pick Sheet — 2026 Week 1

Enter the confidence number next to each game. Highest number = most confident. Strategy: Always-favourite (baseline).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
ConfPickGameLine
16 LAC ARI @ LAC -9.5
15 JAX CLE @ JAX -8.5
14 DET NO @ DET -7.0
13 was 7 ▲6 PIT ATL @ PIT -6.0
12 was 13 ▼1 PHI WAS @ PHI -6.0
11 was 9 ▲2 LA SF @ LA -3.5
10 was 11 ▼1 CIN TB @ CIN -3.5
9 was 10 ▼1 BAL BAL @ IND -3.5
8 was 12 ▼4 SEA NE @ SEA -3.0
7 was 4 ▲3 CHI CHI @ CAR -3.0
6 was 8 ▼2 LV MIA @ LV -3.0
5 was 3 ▲2 DAL DAL @ NYG -3.0
4 was 5 ▼1 KC DEN @ KC -2.5
3 was 2 ▲1 BUF BUF @ HOU -1.5
2 was 6 ▼4 TEN NYJ @ TEN -1.5
1 was 1 MIN FLIP CANDIDATE opened on GB −1.5 GB @ MIN -1.5

Archived 2026-09-12 01:39 UTC. These are the picks as made and they don't change. Odds timestamp unavailable for this week. Line shown is the pick's own spread. 13 marked with their opening value because the pick or confidence changed since the opening line. Shaded rows moved 3+ slots or flipped. Opening line: first DraftKings line captured, 2026-07-02 18:40 UTC.

Thursday game locked and lines moved since? Re-sort the rest by live odds →

Optional flip: GB @ MIN (1.5) is closest to a tossup. Taking GB at confidence 1 costs at most 1.5pp of win probability if rivals pick independently. It gains +36.5pp if they all take the favourites and the pool would otherwise tie. Another game has the same spread; either one works. It is a standings move, not a football opinion, and the only deviation with evidence behind it.

How often the favourite loses outright

Every 1999–2026 regular-season and playoff game with a closing spread: favourites lost 33.4% of 7,366. Highlighted rows are spreads on this week's sheet.

Fav byGamesLostLoss % 95% rangeSince 2015
1 546 266 48.7% 45–53% 51.9% (206)
1.5 218 103 47.2% 41–54% 45.7% (116)
2 169 71 42.0% 35–50% 43.8% (80)
2.5 546 254 46.5% 42–51% 46.0% (326)
3 1,176 490 41.7% 39–45% 39.5% (456)
3.5 702 254 36.2% 33–40% 36.3% (328)
4 342 116 33.9% 29–39% 44.4% (133)
4.5 277 94 33.9% 29–40% 34.2% (114)
5 165 49 29.7% 23–37% 28.6% (63)
5.5 291 99 34.0% 29–40% 34.5% (145)
6 357 112 31.4% 27–36% 29.7% (145)
6.5 347 98 28.2% 24–33% 21.7% (143)
7 500 119 23.8% 20–28% 23.8% (181)
7.5 296 69 23.3% 19–28% 23.4% (171)
8 100 29 29.0% 21–39% 26.8% (41)
8.5 107 29 27.1% 20–36% 31.5% (54)
9 153 37 24.2% 18–32% 31.2% (16)
9.5 163 34 20.9% 15–28% 16.3% (49)
10 217 41 18.9% 14–25% 19.0% (84)
10.5 136 22 16.2% 11–23% 14.1% (64)
11 80 14 17.5% 11–27% 30.8% (26)
11.5 43 10 23.3% 13–38% 18.8% (16)
12 33 8 24.2% 13–41% 14.3% (7)
12.5 49 6 12.2% 6–24% 8.3% (24)
13 73 8 11.0% 6–20% 7.1% (28)
13.5 65 10 15.4% 9–26% 10.7% (28)
14+ 215 19 8.8% 6–13% 9.9% (101)

Ties count as not lost. Pick'em lines are left out. Rows past 8 points have a few dozen to 200 games, so read neighbouring rows together. Rates haven't changed since 2015 (spread-adjusted difference −0.05 points, 95% range −1.8 to +1.8).

Tiebreakers

Highest scoring team
DET
guess 44 points · implied 28.2
right 13% of weeks (random 3%)
Lowest scoring team
CLE
guess 4 points · implied 16.0
right 18% of weeks (random 3%)
Sunday night · DAL @ NYG
DAL 21 – NYG 19
total 40 · posted 47.5
Monday night · DEN @ KC
DEN 16 – KC 19
total 35 · posted 42.5

Scores add up to the posted total minus 7, rounded down, and split the way the spread splits it.

Why the guess is under the line

The posted total is the best forecast available. A tiebreaker rewards being closest, though, and if everyone writes down the line, the line is the most crowded number. Guessing 7 points off it turns a 1% win rate into about 30% in a 20-person pool.

The guess goes under because the median total lands half a point below the line, even though the average is above it.

The team picks usually miss. The highest-implied team tops the week 13% of the time and the lowest-implied bottoms it 18%: four to six times better than guessing. Adding scoring volatility made both picks worse.

The right distance assumes the pool guesses near the line. If it scatters, the distance should grow. Study: backtests/pickem_tiebreak/FINDINGS.md.

Why the sheet just follows the favourites

Across 2,119 games (2018–2025), always picking the favourite, most confident on the biggest spreads, scored 72.39% of maximum points and went 66.4% straight up. Five alternatives were tested and none beat it. Ranking by devigged moneyline tied it (+0.00pp) while ordering 138 of 141 weeks differently. Flipping small home underdogs was 0.52pp worse (99% interval excludes zero).

The usual way to lose a season-long pool is a handful of gut overrides on close games, where the market is hardest to beat.

The one exception is the optional flip above. It is about standings, not football: one deviation at the bottom of the sheet keeps you from tying a field that all picked the same favourites. One game, never more.