Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jalen Hurts — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.063
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.058
Dropbacks
167
Turnover EPA
-13.1
WPA
+0.21
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 28 | -0.040 | +0.045 | -0.085 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.08 | +0.9 |
| 2 | TEN | 40 | +0.136 | +0.219 | -0.083 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.73 | +15.9 |
| 3 | CHI | 27 | -0.413 | -0.406 | -0.007 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.19 | +0.1 |
| 4 | LA | 31 | -0.234 | -0.263 | +0.029 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.4 | -0.42 | -18.5 |
| 5 | JAX | 41 | +0.089 | -0.015 | +0.104 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.00 | -11.1 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.