Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Baker Mayfield — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.207
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.248
Dropbacks
124
Turnover EPA
-20.1
WPA
-1.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 32 | -0.233 | -0.169 | -0.064 | -7.4 | 0 / 2 | -11.8 | 4 | -15.4 | -0.38 | +14.0 |
| 2 | CLE | 37 | -0.307 | -0.367 | +0.060 | -11.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.51 | +4.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 40 | -0.139 | -0.272 | +0.133 | -5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 6 | -8.4 | -0.44 | -14.8 |
| 7 | CAR | 11 | +0.443 | +0.481 | -0.038 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
| 8 | ATL | 4 | -1.541 | -1.559 | +0.019 | -6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.10 | -49.0 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.