EPA splits

Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons
to Weeks to
2026 through week 9
Team
← All teams SEA players: Passing →Rushing →Receiving →

SEA, every split

EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from SEA's side.

SituationOffenseLeagueRankDefenseLeagueRank
All plays Overall
All plays -0.050520 +0.006 24/32 -0.077497 +0.006 5/32
Home / away Setting
Home -0.087301 +0.001 25/32 -0.050321 +0.008 10/32
Away +0.000219 +0.008 19/32 -0.127176 +0.001 5/32
Rest days Setting
Short week (≤5 days) -0.10382 +0.080 12/15 -0.11359 +0.080 2/15
Normal (6–8 days) -0.160250 -0.012 30/32 -0.015264 +0.016 12/32
Extra rest (9–12 days) +0.151139 +0.080 8/14 -0.203103 -0.099 2/14
Indoors / outdoors Weather
Indoors +0.14670 -0.002 5/27 -0.28150 -0.002 2/27
Outdoors -0.081450 +0.009 26/32 -0.054447 +0.009 9/32
Temperature (outdoors) Weather
60–79°F -0.032174 +0.029 20/29 -0.060209 +0.029 8/29
Wind (outdoors) Weather
0–9 mph -0.036107 +0.020 18/29 -0.078142 +0.020 9/29
10–14 mph -0.02667 +0.040 12/18 -0.02467 +0.040 6/18
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather
Dry -0.081450 +0.022 28/32 -0.054447 +0.022 7/32
Score Game state
Trailing 9+ +0.118110 +0.019 11/32 -0.43433 +0.014 3/32
Trailing 1–8 -0.145151 +0.011 28/32 -0.071129 -0.002 10/32
Tied -0.229118 -0.009 30/32 -0.054143 -0.009 16/32
Leading 1–8 -0.14151 -0.002 25/32 -0.106104 +0.011 5/32
Leading 9+ +0.19090 +0.014 7/32 +0.04688 +0.019 17/32
Win probability Game state
Win prob under 20% +0.19089 +0.020 9/31 -0.31576 -0.015 1/32
Win prob 20–80% -0.166330 +0.008 31/32 -0.047333 +0.008 9/32
Win prob over 80% +0.117101 -0.015 6/32 +0.01588 +0.020 18/32
Quarter Game state
Q1 -0.21199 -0.034 29/32 -0.106135 -0.034 11/32
Q2 -0.127156 +0.026 29/32 +0.024127 +0.026 16/32
Q3 +0.004120 +0.005 18/32 -0.196102 +0.005 3/32
Q4 +0.124139 +0.016 6/32 -0.039130 +0.016 8/32
OT -0.5086 +0.109 16/21 -0.6243 +0.109 4/21
Two-minute Game state
Last 2 min of half -0.22965 +0.017 28/32 -0.19465 +0.017 5/32
Rest of game -0.025455 +0.004 21/32 -0.059432 +0.004 9/32
Down Situation
1st down -0.034236 +0.008 22/32 -0.128200 +0.008 3/32
2nd down -0.093169 -0.005 24/32 -0.045172 -0.005 11/32
3rd down -0.015104 +0.004 16/32 -0.264113 +0.004 6/32
4th down -0.08111 +0.140 20/32 +2.27611 +0.140 32/32
3rd-down distance Situation
3rd & 1–3 -0.20419 +0.006 24/32 -0.53428 +0.006 3/32
3rd & 4–6 +0.10624 +0.047 14/32 -0.36430 +0.047 6/32
3rd & 7+ -0.00361 -0.020 18/32 -0.07155 -0.020 12/32
Field position Situation
Own 20 and in -0.16962 -0.017 28/32 -0.05864 -0.017 14/32
Own 50–21 -0.019198 -0.018 18/32 -0.221231 -0.018 2/32
Opp 21–49 -0.019178 +0.028 21/32 -0.066153 +0.028 8/32
Red zone (opp 20 in) -0.10482 +0.043 27/32 +0.54449 +0.043 32/32
Formation Style
Shotgun -0.020270 +0.026 22/32 -0.036313 +0.026 9/32
Under center -0.083250 -0.026 22/32 -0.147184 -0.026 3/32
Tempo Style
Huddle -0.059502 +0.001 24/32 -0.058478 +0.001 10/32
No huddle +0.19318 +0.080 8/32 -0.56019 +0.080 1/32
How much to trust a split A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles included) or a designed run. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry about ±0.14 of luck, and a season split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also track team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face soft defenses. A split describes what happened until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.