EPA splits

Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons
to Weeks to
2026 through week 9
Team
← All teams NYG players: Passing →Rushing →Receiving →

NYG, every split

EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from NYG's side.

SituationOffenseLeagueRankDefenseLeagueRank
All plays Overall
All plays +0.027475 +0.006 14/32 +0.013433 +0.006 17/32
Home / away Setting
Home +0.037264 +0.001 15/32 -0.041255 +0.008 11/32
Away +0.016211 +0.008 16/32 +0.092178 +0.001 25/32
Rest days Setting
Normal (6–8 days) -0.027409 -0.012 18/32 -0.027375 +0.016 10/32
Indoors / outdoors Weather
Indoors -0.049123 -0.002 19/27 +0.088118 -0.002 21/27
Outdoors +0.054352 +0.009 12/32 -0.015315 +0.009 13/32
Temperature (outdoors) Weather
60–79°F -0.107128 +0.029 26/29 -0.176126 +0.029 2/29
80°F+ +0.36366 +0.019 1/20 +0.27158 +0.019 18/20
Wind (outdoors) Weather
0–9 mph +0.149131 +0.020 9/29 +0.017124 +0.020 15/29
10–14 mph -0.14663 +0.040 18/18 -0.14460 +0.040 2/18
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather
Dry +0.098289 +0.022 11/32 +0.015255 +0.022 18/32
Rain or snow -0.14663 -0.114 8/14 -0.14460 -0.114 7/14
Score Game state
Trailing 9+ -0.041110 +0.019 21/32 -0.06557 +0.014 14/32
Trailing 1–8 +0.08790 +0.011 11/32 +0.08078 -0.002 23/32
Tied +0.152119 -0.009 4/32 +0.03783 -0.009 19/32
Leading 1–8 -0.057138 -0.002 18/32 -0.106160 +0.011 4/32
Leading 9+ -0.03018 +0.014 16/32 +0.31255 +0.019 30/32
Win probability Game state
Win prob under 20% +0.034106 +0.020 12/31 +0.02986 -0.015 24/32
Win prob 20–80% +0.041281 +0.008 15/32 -0.056292 +0.008 6/32
Win prob over 80% -0.02588 -0.015 14/32 +0.35655 +0.020 29/32
Quarter Game state
Q1 -0.015117 -0.034 14/32 -0.09283 -0.034 12/32
Q2 -0.047123 +0.026 26/32 -0.063122 +0.026 8/32
Q3 +0.007101 +0.005 17/32 +0.272100 +0.005 30/32
Q4 +0.121116 +0.016 9/32 -0.016115 +0.016 13/32
OT +0.32518 +0.109 7/21 -0.33113 +0.109 6/21
Two-minute Game state
Last 2 min of half +0.04043 +0.017 17/32 -0.12277 +0.017 9/32
Rest of game +0.026432 +0.004 13/32 +0.042356 +0.004 22/32
Down Situation
1st down -0.006210 +0.008 18/32 +0.009192 +0.008 15/32
2nd down -0.037158 -0.005 19/32 +0.064149 -0.005 24/32
3rd down +0.08899 +0.004 10/32 +0.00688 +0.004 16/32
4th down +1.4388 +0.140 4/32 -1.5324 +0.140 1/32
3rd-down distance Situation
3rd & 1–3 +0.10126 +0.006 14/32 +0.15720 +0.006 23/32
3rd & 4–6 +0.80816 +0.047 1/32 +0.17527 +0.047 18/32
3rd & 7+ -0.11957 -0.020 24/32 -0.17841 -0.020 10/32
Field position Situation
Own 20 and in -0.00846 -0.017 16/32 -0.28446 -0.017 3/32
Own 50–21 +0.071187 -0.018 8/32 -0.035196 -0.018 12/32
Opp 21–49 -0.068185 +0.028 27/32 +0.173129 +0.028 27/32
Red zone (opp 20 in) +0.22357 +0.043 3/32 +0.05462 +0.043 16/32
Formation Style
Shotgun +0.061296 +0.026 15/32 +0.001273 +0.026 14/32
Under center -0.029179 -0.026 15/32 +0.034160 -0.026 22/32
Tempo Style
Huddle +0.045440 +0.001 10/32 -0.007402 +0.001 16/32
No huddle -0.19635 +0.080 30/32 +0.27731 +0.080 26/32
How much to trust a split A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles included) or a designed run. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry about ±0.14 of luck, and a season split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also track team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face soft defenses. A split describes what happened until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.