EPA splits

Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons
to Weeks to
2026 through week 9
Games Regular seasonPlayoffsBoth
EPA Raw Opponent-adjusted
Plays AllDropbacksDesigned runs
Team
← All teams LA players: Passing →Rushing →Receiving →

LA, every split

EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from LA's side.

SituationOffenseLeagueRankDefenseLeagueRank
All plays Overall
All plays +0.047546 +0.006 10/32 -0.081510 +0.006 4/32
Home / away Setting
Home +0.109250 +0.001 6/32 -0.121252 +0.008 6/32
Away +0.050236 +0.008 9/32 -0.121193 +0.001 6/32
Neutral site -0.22660 +0.038 10/11 +0.19065 +0.038 10/11
Rest days Setting
Normal (6–8 days) +0.058428 -0.012 9/32 -0.082387 +0.016 5/32
Extra rest (9–12 days) +0.24258 +0.080 3/14 -0.38458 -0.099 1/14
Indoors / outdoors Weather
Indoors +0.064379 -0.002 11/27 -0.065384 -0.002 9/27
Outdoors +0.007167 +0.009 18/32 -0.133126 +0.009 3/32
Temperature (outdoors) Weather
60–79°F +0.01583 +0.029 16/29 -0.28061 +0.029 1/29
80°F+ -0.00084 +0.019 13/20 +0.00565 +0.019 8/20
Wind (outdoors) Weather
0–9 mph +0.01583 +0.020 13/29 -0.28061 +0.020 1/29
10–14 mph -0.00084 +0.040 10/18 +0.00565 +0.040 8/18
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather
Dry -0.00084 +0.022 19/32 +0.00565 +0.022 12/32
Rain or snow +0.01583 -0.114 3/14 -0.28061 -0.114 2/14
Score Game state
Trailing 9+ -0.08281 +0.019 25/32 -0.16141 +0.014 8/32
Trailing 1–8 +0.223179 +0.011 3/32 +0.06275 -0.002 22/32
Tied -0.21193 -0.009 29/32 -0.248130 -0.009 3/32
Leading 1–8 +0.07266 -0.002 10/32 +0.118132 +0.011 25/32
Leading 9+ +0.055127 +0.014 12/32 -0.173132 +0.019 5/32
Win probability Game state
Win prob under 20% -0.06667 +0.020 19/31 -0.27152 -0.015 5/32
Win prob 20–80% +0.079339 +0.008 10/32 +0.007321 +0.008 17/32
Win prob over 80% +0.023140 -0.015 13/32 -0.217137 +0.020 7/32
Quarter Game state
Q1 -0.057110 -0.034 18/32 -0.256124 -0.034 3/32
Q2 +0.154147 +0.026 4/32 -0.035130 +0.026 10/32
Q3 -0.039125 +0.005 21/32 -0.054124 +0.005 13/32
Q4 +0.085157 +0.016 11/32 +0.032124 +0.016 20/32
OT +0.0947 +0.109 10/21 -0.3148 +0.109 7/21
Two-minute Game state
Last 2 min of half +0.29265 +0.017 1/32 +0.02253 +0.017 16/32
Rest of game +0.014481 +0.004 15/32 -0.093457 +0.004 3/32
Down Situation
1st down -0.011246 +0.008 20/32 -0.085220 +0.008 5/32
2nd down +0.200192 -0.005 2/32 +0.153168 -0.005 30/32
3rd down -0.07797 +0.004 23/32 -0.322110 +0.004 3/32
4th down -0.23511 +0.140 21/32 -1.09312 +0.140 5/32
3rd-down distance Situation
3rd & 1–3 +0.36134 +0.006 3/32 -0.20534 +0.006 8/32
3rd & 4–6 -0.85626 +0.047 32/32 -0.28334 +0.047 8/32
3rd & 7+ +0.06737 -0.020 11/32 -0.44742 -0.020 2/32
Field position Situation
Own 20 and in -0.30553 -0.017 32/32 -0.10134 -0.017 11/32
Own 50–21 +0.045233 -0.018 10/32 -0.021203 -0.018 15/32
Opp 21–49 +0.060168 +0.028 14/32 -0.111184 +0.028 4/32
Red zone (opp 20 in) +0.22992 +0.043 2/32 -0.15189 +0.043 6/32
Formation Style
Shotgun +0.062275 +0.026 14/32 -0.109311 +0.026 3/32
Under center +0.031271 -0.026 8/32 -0.038199 -0.026 15/32
Tempo Style
Huddle +0.001491 +0.001 17/32 -0.093479 +0.001 4/32
No huddle +0.45855 +0.080 5/32 +0.09931 +0.080 16/32
How much to trust a split A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles included) or a designed run. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry about ±0.14 of luck, and a season split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also track team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face soft defenses. A split describes what happened until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.