EPA splits

Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons 2026 through week 9

Games Regular season Playoffs Both

EPA Raw Opponent-adjusted

Plays All Dropbacks Designed runs

Team ← All teams DAL players: Passing →Rushing →Receiving →

DAL, every split

EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from DAL's side.

Situation	Offense	League	Rank	Defense	League	Rank
All plays Overall
All plays	+0.120540	+0.006	3/32	+0.133541	+0.006	32/32
Home / away Setting
Home	+0.055187	+0.001	12/32	+0.091219	+0.008	24/32
Away	+0.167280	+0.008	3/32	+0.153258	+0.001	30/32
Neutral site	+0.10473	+0.038	5/11	+0.19664	+0.038	11/11
Rest days Setting
Short week (≤5 days)	-0.01459	+0.080	11/15	+0.14870	+0.080	12/15
Normal (6–8 days)	+0.166346	-0.012	2/32	+0.107332	+0.016	29/32
Extra rest (9–12 days)	-0.09777	+0.080	12/14	+0.03373	-0.099	13/14
Indoors / outdoors Weather
Indoors	+0.099265	-0.002	9/27	+0.110272	-0.002	23/27
Outdoors	+0.141275	+0.009	4/32	+0.158269	+0.009	28/32
Temperature (outdoors) Weather
60–79°F	+0.10473	+0.029	9/29	+0.19664	+0.029	26/29
80°F+	+0.27158	+0.019	3/20	+0.36366	+0.019	20/20
Wind (outdoors) Weather
0–9 mph	+0.178131	+0.020	7/29	+0.281130	+0.020	27/29
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather
Dry	+0.141275	+0.022	4/32	+0.158269	+0.022	28/32
Score Game state
Trailing 9+	+0.256118	+0.019	6/32	-0.04762	+0.014	16/32
Trailing 1–8	+0.130190	+0.011	7/32	+0.106121	-0.002	26/32
Tied	-0.08686	-0.009	21/32	+0.04493	-0.009	20/32
Leading 1–8	+0.15498	-0.002	5/32	+0.199159	+0.011	30/32
Leading 9+	+0.04448	+0.014	13/32	+0.251106	+0.019	27/32
Win probability Game state
Win prob under 20%	+0.234110	+0.020	7/31	-0.021121	-0.015	18/32
Win prob 20–80%	+0.083330	+0.008	9/32	+0.147324	+0.008	30/32
Win prob over 80%	+0.116100	-0.015	7/32	+0.28396	+0.020	27/32
Quarter Game state
Q1	+0.090113	-0.034	7/32	+0.122125	-0.034	28/32
Q2	-0.007140	+0.026	23/32	+0.079154	+0.026	24/32
Q3	+0.199130	+0.005	2/32	+0.167111	+0.005	28/32
Q4	+0.212154	+0.016	2/32	+0.199141	+0.016	30/32
OT	-0.9983	+0.109	21/21	-0.18510	+0.109	9/21
Two-minute Game state
Last 2 min of half	+0.06571	+0.017	15/32	+0.13872	+0.017	25/32
Rest of game	+0.128469	+0.004	3/32	+0.133469	+0.004	32/32
Down Situation
1st down	+0.056240	+0.008	13/32	+0.045239	+0.008	23/32
2nd down	+0.137177	-0.005	6/32	+0.132180	-0.005	28/32
3rd down	+0.217111	+0.004	5/32	+0.399112	+0.004	32/32
4th down	+0.26012	+0.140	15/32	-0.70010	+0.140	6/32
3rd-down distance Situation
3rd & 1–3	+0.23436	+0.006	6/32	-0.08833	+0.006	12/32
3rd & 4–6	+0.05231	+0.047	16/32	+0.75037	+0.047	32/32
3rd & 7+	+0.31944	-0.020	4/32	+0.47342	-0.020	32/32
Field position Situation
Own 20 and in	+0.36034	-0.017	1/32	+0.21656	-0.017	31/32
Own 50–21	+0.054236	-0.018	9/32	+0.065204	-0.018	28/32
Opp 21–49	+0.134160	+0.028	9/32	+0.133180	+0.028	25/32
Red zone (opp 20 in)	+0.167110	+0.043	8/32	+0.227101	+0.043	28/32
Formation Style
Shotgun	+0.160349	+0.026	6/32	+0.239327	+0.026	32/32
Under center	+0.046191	-0.026	5/32	-0.029214	-0.026	18/32
Tempo Style
Huddle	+0.119494	+0.001	5/32	+0.155507	+0.001	32/32
No huddle	+0.12546	+0.080	14/32	-0.18234	+0.080	7/32

How much to trust a split

A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles included) or a designed run. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry about ±0.14 of luck, and a season split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also track team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face soft defenses. A split describes what happened until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.