EPA splits
Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.
BUF, every split
EPA/play with the league average in the same situation and the team's rank among 32 (1 = best; on defense, fewest EPA allowed). Offense and defense situations are each from BUF's side.
| Situation | Offense | League | Rank | Defense | League | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plays Overall | ||||||
| All plays | +0.175455 | +0.006 | 1/32 | +0.085483 | +0.006 | 27/32 |
| Home / away Setting | ||||||
| Home | +0.127273 | +0.001 | 5/32 | +0.015257 | +0.008 | 16/32 |
| Away | +0.246182 | +0.008 | 2/32 | +0.164226 | +0.001 | 31/32 |
| Rest days Setting | ||||||
| Short week (≤5 days) | +0.43971 | +0.080 | 1/15 | +0.28165 | +0.080 | 14/15 |
| Normal (6–8 days) | +0.192185 | -0.012 | 1/32 | +0.203220 | +0.016 | 32/32 |
| Extra rest (9–12 days) | -0.06565 | +0.080 | 11/14 | -0.06569 | -0.099 | 8/14 |
| Off a bye (13+ days) | +0.00579 | +0.052 | 7/10 | -0.46050 | -0.150 | 2/10 |
| Indoors / outdoors Weather | ||||||
| Indoors | +0.246182 | -0.002 | 1/27 | +0.164226 | -0.002 | 24/27 |
| Outdoors | +0.127273 | +0.009 | 5/32 | +0.015257 | +0.009 | 18/32 |
| Temperature (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 60–79°F | +0.177194 | +0.029 | 4/29 | +0.130207 | +0.029 | 23/29 |
| Wind (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| 0–9 mph | +0.43971 | +0.020 | 1/29 | +0.28165 | +0.020 | 28/29 |
| 10–14 mph | +0.026123 | +0.040 | 9/18 | +0.061142 | +0.040 | 11/18 |
| Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather | ||||||
| Dry | +0.127273 | +0.022 | 5/32 | +0.015257 | +0.022 | 17/32 |
| Score Game state | ||||||
| Trailing 9+ | +0.01711 | +0.019 | 16/32 | +0.20710 | +0.014 | 26/32 |
| Trailing 1–8 | +0.298167 | +0.011 | 2/32 | -0.49449 | -0.002 | 1/32 |
| Tied | +0.03185 | -0.009 | 16/32 | +0.08370 | -0.009 | 23/32 |
| Leading 1–8 | +0.057112 | -0.002 | 12/32 | +0.125231 | +0.011 | 26/32 |
| Leading 9+ | +0.25680 | +0.014 | 4/32 | +0.233123 | +0.019 | 26/32 |
| Win probability Game state | ||||||
| Win prob under 20% | — | +0.020 | — | -0.28513 | -0.015 | 3/32 |
| Win prob 20–80% | +0.152351 | +0.008 | 2/32 | +0.049364 | +0.008 | 23/32 |
| Win prob over 80% | +0.252104 | -0.015 | 2/32 | +0.255106 | +0.020 | 24/32 |
| Quarter Game state | ||||||
| Q1 | -0.051113 | -0.034 | 17/32 | +0.08683 | -0.034 | 24/32 |
| Q2 | +0.306117 | +0.026 | 1/32 | +0.051143 | +0.026 | 20/32 |
| Q3 | +0.08693 | +0.005 | 11/32 | +0.119123 | +0.005 | 25/32 |
| Q4 | +0.354124 | +0.016 | 1/32 | +0.090127 | +0.016 | 24/32 |
| OT | -0.3148 | +0.109 | 15/21 | +0.0947 | +0.109 | 12/21 |
| Two-minute Game state | ||||||
| Last 2 min of half | +0.22952 | +0.017 | 4/32 | +0.26465 | +0.017 | 30/32 |
| Rest of game | +0.168403 | +0.004 | 1/32 | +0.057418 | +0.004 | 24/32 |
| Down Situation | ||||||
| 1st down | +0.090218 | +0.008 | 6/32 | +0.073214 | +0.008 | 28/32 |
| 2nd down | +0.167147 | -0.005 | 4/32 | +0.095160 | -0.005 | 25/32 |
| 3rd down | +0.34679 | +0.004 | 1/32 | -0.09698 | +0.004 | 10/32 |
| 4th down | +0.72611 | +0.140 | 9/32 | +1.79311 | +0.140 | 30/32 |
| 3rd-down distance Situation | ||||||
| 3rd & 1–3 | -0.22821 | +0.006 | 26/32 | -0.07530 | +0.006 | 17/32 |
| 3rd & 4–6 | +0.76721 | +0.047 | 2/32 | -0.31323 | +0.047 | 7/32 |
| 3rd & 7+ | +0.43337 | -0.020 | 2/32 | -0.00045 | -0.020 | 15/32 |
| Field position Situation | ||||||
| Own 20 and in | -0.11526 | -0.017 | 24/32 | -0.12431 | -0.017 | 8/32 |
| Own 50–21 | +0.140186 | -0.018 | 2/32 | -0.071221 | -0.018 | 7/32 |
| Opp 21–49 | +0.271151 | +0.028 | 1/32 | +0.280139 | +0.028 | 31/32 |
| Red zone (opp 20 in) | +0.16992 | +0.043 | 7/32 | +0.23792 | +0.043 | 29/32 |
| Formation Style | ||||||
| Shotgun | +0.233210 | +0.026 | 1/32 | +0.100288 | +0.026 | 26/32 |
| Under center | +0.124245 | -0.026 | 2/32 | +0.064195 | -0.026 | 27/32 |
| Tempo Style | ||||||
| Huddle | +0.141436 | +0.001 | 2/32 | +0.070460 | +0.001 | 27/32 |
| No huddle | +0.94519 | +0.080 | 1/32 | +0.38723 | +0.080 | 30/32 |