Defense rankings — 2026 Week 9
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX @ BAL | 9.1 | 2.9 – 16.3 | 16.1 | +2.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 2 | SEA vs ARI | 9.0 | 2.8 – 16.2 | 15.8 | +2.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | HOU @ LAC | 8.5 | 2.2 – 15.6 | 17.4 | +1.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 4 | NYG @ PHI | 8.1 | 1.8 – 15.2 | 18.1 | +1.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 5 | KC vs NYJ | 7.8 | 1.6 – 15.0 | 19.1 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 6 | SF vs LV | 7.3 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 20.8 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 7 | NO vs CLE | 7.3 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 19.8 | +1.2 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 8 | BUF @ MIN | 7.2 | 1.0 – 14.4 | 20.5 | +1.0 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 9 | DEN @ CAR | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.2 | 20.9 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 10 | DET @ MIA | 7.1 | 0.8 – 14.2 | 21.5 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 11 | CHI vs TB | 7.0 | 0.7 – 14.2 | 21.0 | +0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 12 | LA @ WAS | 6.9 | 0.7 – 14.1 | 21.6 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 13 | NE vs GB | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.1 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 14 | PHI vs NYG | 6.4 | 0.1 – 13.6 | 21.3 | +0.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 15 | DAL @ IND | 6.3 | 0.0 – 13.4 | 23.5 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 16 | CIN @ ATL | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.1 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 17 | CLE @ NO | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.1 | 23.4 | +0.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 18 | GB @ NE | 5.7 | -0.6 – 12.9 | 24.1 | +0.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 19 | MIN vs BUF | 5.6 | -0.7 – 12.8 | 23.7 | +0.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 20 | CAR vs DEN | 5.5 | -0.8 – 12.6 | 24.2 | +0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 21 | LAC vs HOU | 5.4 | -0.9 – 12.6 | 23.9 | +0.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 22 | ARI @ SEA | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.4 | 24.5 | -0.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 23 | BAL vs JAX | 4.9 | -1.4 – 12.0 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 24 | WAS vs LA | 4.7 | -1.6 – 11.8 | 26.4 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 25 | TB @ CHI | 4.6 | -1.7 – 11.8 | 27.1 | -0.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 26 | ATL vs CIN | 4.2 | -2.1 – 11.3 | 28.3 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 27 | IND vs DAL | 4.1 | -2.2 – 11.2 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 28 | MIA vs DET | 4.0 | -2.3 – 11.1 | 28.5 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 29 | NYJ @ KC | 3.9 | -2.4 – 11.0 | 28.9 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 30 | LV @ SF | 3.2 | -3.1 – 10.3 | 31.1 | -1.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.