Defense rankings — 2026 Week 10
Use this for the order, not the number. Ranking defenses this way is about twice as good as ranking them by season-to-date fantasy points (Spearman 0.29 out of sample vs 0.13) — but half of what a defense scores is turnovers and touchdowns, which nothing predicts.
| Defense | Proj | Floor–ceiling | Pts allowed | from tiers | Sacks | Turnovers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX @ TEN | 8.6 | 2.3 – 15.7 | 17.8 | +1.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | HOU @ CLE | 8.3 | 2.0 – 15.4 | 17.7 | +1.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | BAL vs LAC | 7.7 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | LA @ ARI | 7.6 | 1.4 – 14.8 | 20.0 | +1.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 5 | GB vs MIN | 7.5 | 1.2 – 14.6 | 19.1 | +1.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 6 | LAC @ BAL | 7.2 | 0.9 – 14.3 | 19.9 | +1.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 7 | BUF @ NYJ | 7.1 | 0.9 – 14.3 | 21.5 | +0.7 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 8 | IND vs MIA | 6.9 | 0.6 – 14.0 | 20.9 | +0.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 9 | KC @ ATL | 6.8 | 0.5 – 13.9 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10 | NYG vs WAS | 6.5 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 21.9 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 11 | CIN vs PIT | 6.4 | 0.2 – 13.6 | 22.3 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 12 | MIN @ GB | 6.3 | 0.1 – 13.5 | 22.2 | +0.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 13 | CAR @ NO | 6.2 | -0.0 – 13.4 | 23.2 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 14 | WAS @ NYG | 6.0 | -0.2 – 13.2 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 15 | MIA @ IND | 6.0 | -0.3 – 13.1 | 23.3 | +0.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 16 | NE @ DET | 5.9 | -0.3 – 13.1 | 24.1 | +0.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 17 | CLE vs HOU | 5.9 | -0.4 – 13.1 | 22.6 | +0.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 18 | SF @ DAL | 5.8 | -0.5 – 12.9 | 25.0 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 19 | NO vs CAR | 5.3 | -1.0 – 12.5 | 24.9 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 20 | ATL vs KC | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.2 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 21 | PIT @ CIN | 5.2 | -1.1 – 12.3 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 22 | DET vs NE | 5.0 | -1.3 – 12.2 | 25.8 | -0.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 23 | ARI vs LA | 4.0 | -2.2 – 11.2 | 28.0 | -0.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 24 | DAL vs SF | 4.0 | -2.3 – 11.1 | 28.8 | -1.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 25 | TEN vs JAX | 3.8 | -2.5 – 10.9 | 28.4 | -0.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 26 | NYJ vs BUF | 3.6 | -2.7 – 10.7 | 29.5 | -1.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
Projected points allowed comes from the posted total and the opponent's implied
total; the tier column is the expectation across the points-allowed tiers, not the
tier a single projection happens to land in. Defensive touchdowns and safeties are
the league mean — nothing forecasts them
(fitted 2019-2025).
Measured walk-forward, one season held out at a time: Spearman
0.295, MAE 4.27 against a
4.41 league-mean baseline, R² 0.079
over 3,136 defense-games. The R² is the honest ceiling: this
orders defenses, it does not predict their scores. Study at
backtests/kicker_dst/FINDINGS.md.