Track Record

Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.

Polling regime

Showing only picks made under burst_2026_09: 4-hourly baseline plus 1-minute polling in the hour before kickoff. 1,894 settled so far. The previous era's 12,821 settled picks are kept but left out. At 30–60 minute polling, 70% of them quoted a price that was gone by the next poll. Show all regimes.

How to read this

This is the as-shown record: every pick displayed, one bet per pick at the best price, nothing filtered out afterwards. It is not a proven edge. Recent windows have run from break-even to slightly negative, and the ROI intervals span zero. CLV here is no-vig CLV throughout. The current-ruleset view drops picks that today's rules would block, so it is a hypothetical.

Recent Performance

Last 7 Days

CLV+ Rate 93.20%
Avg Edge +1.84%
ROI -16.93%
Record 2-2
Win Rate 50.00%

Last 30 Days

CLV+ Rate 78.20%
Avg Edge +1.00%
ROI +0.65%
Record 394-324
Win Rate 54.90%
CLV+ Rate
76.80%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+0.99%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
+1.25%
95% CI [-4.5, +7.0]%
All-time +1.25% (n=1007, not significant)
Total Alerts
1,479
1,007 settled
Win Rate
55.00%
554W - 453L
Track Record
Verified
Over 1,400+ alerts tracked
Sport:
Bet Type:
Time Period:
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CLV Distribution

No-vig CLV for alerts with a captured close. Positive means the alert's price beat the fair closing line.

7
< -5%
57
-5% to -2%
161
-2% to 0%
463
0% to 2%
275
2% to 5%
12
> 5%

Performance by Sport

Sport Alerts CLV+ Rate Avg CLV Win Rate W-L ROI
nfl 518 78.30% +1.25% 47.30% 26-29 -17.96%
nba 17 58.80% +0.02% 47.10% 8-9 -15.41%
nhl 930 76.90% +0.80% 56.00% 517-406 +3.54%
tennis_wta 3 66.70% -4.03% 100.00% 2-0 +22.91%
tennis_atp 1 0.00% -0.78% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
mlb 10 16.70% -1.50% 10.00% 1-9 -80.48%

Performance by Bet Type

Bet Type Alerts CLV+ Rate Avg CLV Win Rate W-L ROI
Receptions 286 85.30% +1.51% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
Pass Tds 42 81.00% +1.17% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
Rush Yds 47 83.00% +1.46% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
Reception Yds 72 73.60% +1.13% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
Spread 63 47.80% -0.17% 42.60% 26-35 -25.00%
Moneyline 24 41.70% -0.92% 77.30% 17-5 +9.58%
Pass Yds 14 42.90% -0.10% 0.00% 0-0 +0.00%
Total 75 14.30% -1.40% 35.60% 26-47 -25.75%
Shots on Goal 434 0.00% +0.00% 54.40% 235-197 +3.31%
Points 349 82.70% +0.87% 59.50% 206-140 +6.10%
h2h 73 79.50% +1.60% 60.30% 44-29 +12.48%

Performance by Detector Source

Alerts by detector. market_consensus is the line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the NHL stacking model, live since 2026-09-26. Older model sources (nba_model_v2, nhl_model_v1) were retired on 2026-05-30.

Source Alerts CLV+ Rate Avg CLV Win Rate W-L ROI
market_consensus 1,406 76.60% +0.94% 54.60% 510-424 +0.37%
nhl_stacking_v3 73 79.50% +1.60% 60.30% 44-29 +12.48%

Performance by Movement Signal

Movement Class Record Win Rate ROI
away_large 9-10 47.40% -16.34%
toward_pick 44-21 67.70% +10.30%
stable 157-272 36.60% -25.90%
away_small 14-23 37.80% -22.45%
RLM Status Record Win Rate ROI
No RLM 204-291 41.20% -20.10%
RLM 20-35 36.40% -29.16%

Alert Log

Showing 1479 most recent alerts
Date Sport Type Selection Book Alert Odds Close Odds CLV EV Result
11/06/26 nfl Receptions
Parker Washington Over 4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel +134 +118 +2.36% +1.6% NONE
11/05/26 nfl Receptions
Jakobi Meyers Under 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
DraftKings -142 -155 +1.00% +1.66% NONE
11/05/26 nfl Receptions
Rashod Bateman Over 1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel +130 +110 +3.25% +1.81% NONE
11/05/26 nfl Receptions
Brenton Strange Over 3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
BetMGM +105 -105 +1.45% +1.8% NONE
11/05/26 nfl Pass Tds
Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens
FanDuel -122 -129 +0.42% +1.53% NONE
11/03/26 nfl Receptions
Kalif Raymond Over 2.5
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings +147 +130 +2.36% +1.37% NONE
11/03/26 nfl Pass Tds
Caleb Williams Over 1.5
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings +131 +111 +2.42% +3.42% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Receptions
Luther Burden III Over 4.5
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
Bovada +130 +108 +2.40% +4.46% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Receptions
D'Andre Swift Over 3.5
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings +127 +109 +2.58% +2.43% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Rush Yds
Luther Burden III Under 3.5
Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings -109 -125 +2.41% +1.68% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Receptions
Rachaad White Under 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
DraftKings -125 -141 +2.41% +0.87% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Receptions
Antonio Williams Under 3.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
BetMGM -155 -178 +2.34% +1.31% NONE
11/02/26 nfl Reception Yds
Antonio Williams Over 37.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
FanDuel -113 -128 +2.46% +1.04% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Spread
New England Patriots -7
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
BetMGM -102 -110 N/A +2.09% LOSS
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Saquon Barkley Under 2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
FanDuel -158 -207 +5.24% +1.36% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Dallas Goedert Over 4.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
BetMGM -140 -151 +0.54% +1.94% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Spread
Philadelphia Eagles +5.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
FanDuel +100 -108 -0.45% +0.66% LOSS
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Aaron Jones Under 1.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
DraftKings +132 +117 +2.38% +1.22% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Brenton Strange Under 3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
DraftKings +126 +110 +2.35% +2.03% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Moneyline
Los Angeles Rams ML
Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams
DraftKings -270 -294 +0.21% +0.8% WIN
11/01/26 nfl Reception Yds
Jeremiyah Love Over 10.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel -113 -125 +1.24% +2.09% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Rush Yds
Bijan Robinson Over 80.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel -113 -130 +2.41% +1.75% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Reception Yds
Dalton Kincaid Under 46.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
FanDuel -113 -143 +4.33% +2.45% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Mike Gesicki Under 2.5
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
DraftKings -134 -152 +1.44% +2.48% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Yds
Jared Goff Under 259.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
DraftKings -112 -136 +1.72% +5.13% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Rush Yds
Aaron Jones Under 29.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
DraftKings -110 -141 +4.40% +2.9% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Reception Yds
Sam LaPorta Under 45.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
FanDuel -113 -128 +2.34% +1.24% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Tds
Geno Smith Under 1.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
Fanatics -110 -122 +1.91% +1.12% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Tds
Josh Allen Under 1.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
BetMGM +120 +103 +2.09% +3.33% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Josh Cuevas Under 1.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
FanDuel -174 -199 +2.37% +0.96% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Ja'Kobi Lane Under 2.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
BetMGM +100 -113 +2.37% +1.2% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Tds
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel -140 -147 +0.22% +1.44% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Rush Yds
Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
FanDuel -106 -113 +0.67% +1.58% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Tds
Kyler Murray Under 1.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
DraftKings -142 -158 +1.55% +1.52% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
FanDuel +144 +134 +1.27% +1.03% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Parker Washington Under 4.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Bovada +110 +105 +0.37% +1.46% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Reception Yds
Michael Mayer Over 25.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets
DraftKings -112 -129 +2.01% +2.47% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Reception Yds
Michael Wilson Over 56.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel -113 -110 -2.14% +2.45% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Ryan Flournoy Under 3.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
DraftKings -123 -141 +2.41% +1.51% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Michael Wilson Over 4.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel -118 -134 +2.54% +0.98% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel -106 -121 +2.60% +1.18% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
George Pickens Under 4.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
BetMGM -110 -126 +2.38% +1.65% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Receptions
Tez Johnson Under 2.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DraftKings -128 -154 +2.34% +3.37% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Pass Tds
Lamar Jackson Under 1.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
FanDuel -110 -120 +1.40% +1.28% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Rush Yds
Jeremiyah Love Over 41.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
FanDuel -113 -112 -1.49% +2.09% NONE
11/01/26 nfl Spread
Arizona Cardinals +7
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys
Fanatics -105 -105 N/A +1.99% WIN
10/31/26 nfl Spread
Indianapolis Colts +10
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Bovada -108 -118 N/A +1.01% LOSS
10/29/26 nfl Receptions
Matthew Golden Over 4.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
BetMGM +105 -109 +2.39% +1.78% NONE
10/29/26 nfl Rush Yds
Savion Williams Under 3.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
DraftKings -104 -120 +2.31% +2.17% NONE
10/29/26 nfl Receptions
Matthew Golden Under 4.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
DraftKings +102 -111 +2.61% +0.88% NONE
10/29/26 nfl Reception Yds
Mitchell Evans Under 6.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
FanDuel +100 -114 +2.80% +0.84% NONE
10/29/26 nfl Receptions
Christian Watson Under 4.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
DraftKings +111 +105 +0.78% +1.12% NONE
10/29/26 nfl Pass Yds
Bryce Young Under 252.5
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
FanDuel -113 -112 -1.57% +2.24% NONE
10/26/26 nfl Rush Yds
Saquon Barkley Under 68.5
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
FanDuel -113 -121 +0.79% +1.5% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Rush Yds
Patrick Mahomes Under 17.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings -112 -126 +2.24% +1.14% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Emanuel Wilson Under 7.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
BetMGM -115 -131 +2.21% +1.67% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Tyler Allgeier Under 2.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -157 -183 +1.74% +2.64% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Jalen Brooks Under 1.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -114 -130 +2.24% +1.67% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Kendrick Bourne Under 34.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -113 -126 +2.01% +1.14% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Kyle Juszczyk Under 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
BetMGM -120 -133 +1.84% +1.13% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Denzel Boston Under 51.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
BetMGM -115 -138 +2.11% +3.91% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Carnell Tate Under 4.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
BetMGM -111 -128 +2.18% +2.26% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Dalton Schultz Under 3.5
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
DraftKings -152 -171 +1.93% +1.25% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Jordan Addison Under 3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings -140 -158 +1.98% +1.39% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Omar Cooper Jr. Under 2.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Bovada +105 -111 +2.37% +2.62% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Moneyline
Seattle Seahawks ML
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings -142 -151 +0.21% +0.64% WIN
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
RJ Harvey Over 24.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel -106 -123 +1.88% +3.12% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Evan Engram Over 2.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings +124 +117 +0.58% +1.69% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Elijah Higgins Over 12.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -109 -116 -0.80% +3.96% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Rush Yds
Kyler Murray Under 25.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings -113 -129 +2.15% +1.87% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Rush Yds
Seth McGowan Under 13.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings -106 -128 +2.30% +4.08% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Mason Taylor Over 17.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
DraftKings -113 -131 +2.21% +2.4% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Garrett Wilson Over 62.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
FanDuel -113 -132 +3.16% +1.14% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Malik Washington Over 4.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
FanDuel +124 +109 +2.57% +1.26% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Rush Yds
Jordan Mason Under 49.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings -113 -129 +1.83% +2.4% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Rush Yds
Brock Purdy Over 19.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
DraftKings -113 -132 +2.18% +2.76% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Zachariah Branch Over 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Bovada +110 -114 +3.27% +4.4% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Dohnte Meyers Under 1.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
DraftKings +102 -109 +2.15% +0.88% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Tyjae Spears Over 2.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
DraftKings +129 +112 +2.62% +1.77% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Woody Marks Under 2.5
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
Bovada -110 -135 +4.40% +1.13% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Pass Tds
Kyler Murray Under 1.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Fanatics -120 -135 +0.49% +3.89% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Justin Jefferson Over 72.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
FanDuel -113 -128 +2.40% +1.14% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
T.J. Hockenson Under 4.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
DraftKings -134 -152 +2.14% +1.41% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Pass Tds
Brock Purdy Under 1.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons
Fanatics +130 +113 +2.61% +1.74% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Tyler Allgeier Under 10.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -108 -127 +2.21% +3.07% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
J.K. Dobbins Under 4.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -107 -126 +2.13% +3.28% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Evan Engram Under 2.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings -108 -142 +5.97% +1.34% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Jalen Brooks Over 1.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
BetMGM -111 +107 -5.20% +1.51% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Troy Franklin Over 1.5
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
FanDuel +102 -104 +0.74% +1.3% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Spread
Indianapolis Colts +7
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Bovada -110 -112 -1.93% +2.13% WIN
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Tank Dell Over 0.5
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
DraftKings -212 -268 +3.14% +2.25% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Garrett Wilson Under 5.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
DraftKings +102 -110 +2.38% +0.88% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Spread
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks
Fanatics +100 -107 -1.91% +1.02% LOSS
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
John Metchie III Under 1.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
FanDuel -136 -141 +0.23% +0.99% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Dylan Sampson Over 1.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
DraftKings -126 -141 +1.89% +1.36% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
DK Metcalf Over 4.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
DraftKings -123 -140 +2.16% +1.61% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Moneyline
New York Jets ML
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
FanDuel -190 -195 -0.78% +1.48% LOSS
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Devin Singletary Under 6.5
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
BetMGM -110 -127 +0.29% +5.51% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Receptions
Chris Godwin Over 4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
FanDuel -106 -122 +2.25% +2.15% NONE
10/25/26 nfl Reception Yds
Dylan Sampson Over 10.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
FanDuel -113 -104 -2.67% +0.99% NONE

How EV is calculated

Fair probabilities are Pinnacle's prices with the margin removed (Shin's method). EV compares a retail book's price with that fair probability.

Read Full Methodology