Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
How to read this
Current ruleset (would-have-been) view. These numbers retroactively exclude picks that today's selection rules would have suppressed — that removes 50.3% of the picks that were actually shown to users in this window. It is a hypothetical, not our record. See the default as-shown record for what a user betting every displayed pick actually experienced.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
80.00%
Avg Edge
+0.90%
ROI
-48.93%
Record
2-5
Win Rate
28.60%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
69.20%
Avg Edge
+0.86%
ROI
-16.18%
Record
24-24
Win Rate
50.00%
CLV+ Rate
49.60%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+0.00%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-8.11%
95% CI [-19.5, +3.3]%
All-time +2.30% (n=2539, not significant)
Total Alerts
261
253 settled
Win Rate
50.60%
128W - 125L
Track Record
Building
Over 200+ alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 144 | 42.30% | -0.15% | 48.20% | 67-72 | -8.44% |
| tennis_wta | 9 | 100.00% | +2.42% | 71.40% | 5-2 | -1.44% |
| tennis_atp | 5 | 100.00% | +1.48% | 50.00% | 2-2 | -10.29% |
| nhl | 14 | 0.00% | -0.54% | 78.60% | 11-3 | +11.64% |
| nba | 89 | 46.20% | -0.62% | 48.30% | 43-46 | -11.13% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 47 | 80.40% | +1.06% | 56.80% | 25-19 | -9.72% |
| Total | 113 | 22.90% | -0.65% | 46.30% | 50-58 | -7.69% |
| Points | 51 | 44.00% | -0.68% | 49.00% | 25-26 | -15.76% |
| Assists | 25 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 60.00% | 15-10 | +5.65% |
| Rebounds | 25 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 52.00% | 13-12 | -5.24% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 261 | 49.60% | +0.00% | 50.60% | 128-125 | -8.11% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| expanding | 31-43 | 41.90% | -30.15% |
| fading | 13-7 | 65.00% | +11.20% |
| confirming | 13-4 | 76.50% | +53.80% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 45-47 | 48.90% | -12.96% |
| RLM | 12-7 | 63.20% | +5.27% |
Alert Log
Showing 261 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Kansas City Royals ML
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -174 | -185 | +0.43% | +0.95% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cleveland Guardians ML
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
|
FanDuel | -194 | -225 | +2.50% | +0.78% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
|
FanDuel | +100 | -116 | N/A | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Aryna Sabalenka ML
Sara Bejlek @ Aryna Sabalenka
|
William Hill | -600 | -883 | +3.50% | +2.98% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Atlanta Braves ML
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
|
FanDuel | -102 | -110 | +0.84% | +1.26% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
|
Bovada | +100 | +105 | -2.75% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -101 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Madison Keys ML
Xiyu Wang @ Madison Keys
|
FanDuel | -365 | -406 | +1.03% | +2.47% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
|
MyBookie | +100 | +106 | N/A | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Chicago Cubs ML
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
|
William Hill | -157 | -169 | +0.88% | +1.64% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | +100 | +104 | -2.52% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | -102 | +100 | -1.95% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -102 | -1.21% | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
|
DraftKings | -257 | -276 | +0.81% | +1.51% | WIN |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
Bovada | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 10.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
|
MyBookie | -101 | -111 | N/A | +2.16% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
William Hill | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +2.52% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | -103 | -106 | -0.25% | +1.46% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Marie Bouzkova ML
Lucrezia Stefanini @ Marie Bouzkova
|
FanDuel | -350 | -440 | +3.02% | +2.98% | WIN |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
|
Bovada | -105 | -111 | -0.01% | +2.08% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
|
Bovada | +100 | +100 | N/A | +3.51% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
|
FanDuel | -146 | -166 | +1.85% | +1.34% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Amanda Anisimova ML
Amanda Anisimova @ Zeynep Sonmez
|
DraftKings | -370 | -451 | +2.45% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Belinda Bencic ML
Belinda Bencic @ Lois Boisson
|
FanDuel | -350 | -433 | +2.77% | +3.41% | NONE |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
BetMGM | +100 | -114 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -102 | N/A | +1.35% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Bovada | +100 | -120 | +3.20% | +2.02% | WIN |
| 08/14/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Novak Djokovic ML
Thiago Agustin Tirante @ Novak Djokovic
|
DraftKings | -307 | -353 | +1.73% | +3.43% | LOSS |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
|
Bovada | +100 | -110 | N/A | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/13/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Cameron Norrie ML
Dino Prizmic @ Cameron Norrie
|
BetUS | -170 | -184 | +0.77% | +2.22% | WIN |
| 08/13/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Taylor Townsend ML
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano @ Taylor Townsend
|
BetUS | -140 | -161 | +2.21% | +2.5% | NONE |
| 08/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
Bovada | +100 | +108 | N/A | +1.85% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Terence Atmane ML
Terence Atmane @ Marton Fucsovics
|
DraftKings | -192 | -205 | +0.43% | +2.32% | NONE |
| 08/12/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Ashlyn Krueger ML
Lois Boisson @ Ashlyn Krueger
|
DraftKings | -216 | -255 | +2.54% | +2.68% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Atlanta Braves ML
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
LowVig | -150 | -179 | +3.39% | +1.0% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
|
William Hill | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
Bovada | +100 | -114 | N/A | +3.18% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
|
FanDuel | -180 | -190 | +0.45% | +0.97% | WIN |
| 08/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -186 | -204 | +1.24% | +1.03% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
FanDuel | -245 | -268 | +1.15% | +1.22% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
FanDuel | -220 | -234 | +0.50% | +1.44% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
FanDuel | -235 | -218 | -1.76% | +1.2% | LOSS |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cleveland Guardians ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetOnline | -102 | -124 | +3.69% | +1.26% | LOSS |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
|
FanDuel | -126 | -128 | -0.31% | +1.25% | LOSS |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -178 | -190 | +0.71% | +0.87% | WIN |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
FanDuel | -230 | -277 | +3.10% | +1.15% | LOSS |
| 08/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
|
LowVig | -102 | -116 | +1.78% | +1.65% | WIN |
| 08/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
Fanatics | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | N/A | +3.2% | WIN |
| 08/07/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
DraftKings | -260 | -293 | +1.67% | +2.04% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Yankees
|
DraftKings | -110 | N/A | N/A | +1.0% | LOSS |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -106 | N/A | +1.35% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | N/A | +1.01% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Detroit Tigers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
FanDuel | -104 | -116 | N/A | +1.78% | WIN |
| 07/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
William Hill | +100 | -104 | -0.48% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Texas Rangers @ Atlanta Braves
|
MyBookie | -103 | -109 | -0.01% | +1.31% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Chicago White Sox ML
Athletics @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetUS | -125 | -144 | +2.64% | +3.33% | WIN |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
FanDuel | +100 | +101 | N/A | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
DraftKings | -103 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.31% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ New York Mets
|
BetMGM | +100 | +102 | +1.45% | +2.69% | WIN |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
William Hill | +100 | +104 | -2.06% | +0.85% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Cleveland Guardians @ Miami Marlins
|
DraftKings | -103 | -114 | N/A | +1.79% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -101 | -113 | N/A | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | -102 | -110 | N/A | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -103 | -0.48% | +3.18% | WIN |
| 07/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
MyBookie | -236 | -198 | -4.56% | +1.01% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
|
Fanatics | +100 | -107 | N/A | +2.86% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
Fanatics | +100 | -106 | N/A | +4.0% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
Fanatics | +100 | -113 | N/A | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Fanatics | +100 | +102 | N/A | +2.36% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -188 | -205 | +1.18% | +0.77% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | -2.17% | +4.79% | LOSS |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | N/A | +1.69% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -105 | N/A | +2.52% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | N/A | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | -101 | +106 | -3.23% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
|
LowVig | -102 | +101 | -2.19% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
William Hill | +100 | -111 | +1.09% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -102 | -102 | N/A | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -103 | +104 | N/A | +1.46% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | N/A | +2.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -112 | +0.48% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
|
BetMGM | +100 | N/A | N/A | +1.01% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Paula Badosa ML
Paula Badosa @ Suzan Lamens
|
William Hill | -115 | -142 | +3.92% | +5.22% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Linda Noskova ML
Renata Zarazua @ Linda Noskova
|
BetUS | -500 | -541 | +0.32% | +2.24% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Jakub Mensik ML
Adrian Mannarino @ Jakub Mensik
|
LowVig | -164 | -195 | +2.89% | +2.01% | LOSS |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
St. Louis Cardinals ML
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
DraftKings | -151 | -159 | +0.41% | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetOnline | +100 | -113 | N/A | +3.59% | PUSH |
| 06/15/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Hubert Hurkacz ML
Hubert Hurkacz @ Andrey Rublev
|
BetUS | +100 | -113 | +1.57% | +2.75% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Shea Theodore Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -120 | N/A | N/A | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Noah Hanifin Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
DraftKings | -280 | N/A | N/A | +1.96% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Sean Walker Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -350 | N/A | N/A | +0.59% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Colton Sissons Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -325 | N/A | N/A | +0.62% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +1.27% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
BetMGM | +100 | +107 | N/A | +1.27% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
|
FanDuel | +100 | -117 | N/A | +2.97% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Stephon Castle Under 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Josh Hart Under 9.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -105 | N/A | N/A | +1.75% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | LOSS |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology