Model Performance

Performance metrics for all prediction models

Total Models
14
Avg Accuracy
62.7%
Best Accuracy
93.3%
Total Predictions
417,792
NFL Moneyline NFL
XGBoost Classifier
Data: 2021-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 54.0% 586-500
ROI -7.4% 95% CI: -13.1% to -1.7%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? N/A
Brier Score ? N/A
Sample Size 1,086 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-10T11:04:35.575673
NFL Spread (ATS) NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 49.3% 518-533
ROI -4.9% 95% CI: -10.7% to 0.9%
MAE (Spread) 11.56
RMSE 14.77
Log Loss ? N/A
Brier Score ? N/A
Sample Size 1,051 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-10T11:04:35.575673
NFL Totals (O/U) NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 50.8% 544-527
ROI -2.1% 95% CI: -7.8% to 3.6%
MAE (Spread) 11.68
RMSE 14.99
Log Loss ? N/A
Brier Score ? N/A
Sample Size 1,071 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-10T11:04:35.575673
NFL Score Prediction NFL
XGBoost Regressor
Data: 2021-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy N/A
ROI N/A
MAE (Spread) 11.56
RMSE 14.77
Log Loss ? N/A
Brier Score ? N/A
Sample Size 1,087 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-10T11:04:35.575673
College Hockey Moneyline College Hockey
XGBoost + Elo
Data: 2023-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 67.8%
ROI +29.5% 95% CI: 21.6% to 37.3%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.6015
Brier Score ? 0.2068
Sample Size(est) -
Last Updated: Unknown
College Hockey Score Prediction College Hockey
XGBoost Regression
Data: 2023-2024
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy N/A
ROI N/A
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? N/A
Brier Score ? N/A
Sample Size(est) -
Last Updated: Unknown
MLB Moneyline Elo v2 (pitcher-adjusted) MLB
moneyline
Data: 2025-03-18 to 2026-07-02
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 55.3% 2,088-1,687
ROI -5.9% 95% CI: -17.5% to 5.6%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.6814
Brier Score ? 0.2443
Sample Size 3,775 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03
NBA Moneyline v1 NBA
moneyline
Data: 2019-10-23 to 2026-06-13
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 64.0% 4,968-2,789
ROI -3.0% 95% CI: -5.9% to -0.2%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.6333
Brier Score ? 0.2216
Sample Size 7,757 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03
MLB Batter Hits v2 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2026-05-28 to 2026-07-05
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 59.9% 3,598-2,405
ROI -5.4% 95% CI: -7.8% to -3.0%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.6695
Brier Score ? 0.2382
Sample Size 6,003 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-06
MLB Batter Home Runs v2 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2023-2025 walk-forward hold-out
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 87.9% Base-rate accuracy (rare event at the 0.5 line) — read log loss / Brier
ROI -4.2% 95% CI: -13.8% to 5.4%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.3603
Brier Score ? 0.1046
Sample Size 126,986 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-06
MLB Batter Stolen Bases v1 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2023-2025 walk-forward hold-out
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 93.3% Base-rate accuracy (rare event at the 0.5 line) — read log loss / Brier
ROI N/A
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.2243
Brier Score ? 0.0596
Sample Size 126,986 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03
MLB Batter Total Bases v1 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2023-2025 walk-forward hold-out
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 62.9% 79,848-47,138
ROI N/A
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.656
Brier Score ? 0.2318
Sample Size 126,986 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03
MLB Pitcher Outs v1 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 53.5% 7,798-6,780
ROI N/A
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.6901
Brier Score ? 0.2485
Sample Size 14,578 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03
MLB Pitcher Strikeouts v1 MLB
player_prop
Data: 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-16
Metric Value Detail
Accuracy 53.3% 227-199
ROI -4.3% 95% CI: -13.3% to 4.8%
MAE (Spread) N/A
RMSE N/A
Log Loss ? 0.7021
Brier Score ? 0.2398
Sample Size 426 predictions
Last Updated: 2026-07-03