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Providence
Merrimack
2026-11-14
Providence
5-2
L
L
W
W
W
3-2 L5
L2
VS
Upcoming
Merrimack
6-1
W
T
W
W
W
4-0 L5
Our Prediction
Pick
Providence
Predicted Score
3 - 3
Total: 6.0
Confidence
Low
Elo Edge: -30
Providence
52%
Merrimack
48%
Model Line Projections
Total
O/U 6.0
What's at Stake (season simulated 40,000 times)
Providence
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 25% | 33% | 18% |
| Win conference tournament | 19% | 20% | 18% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 65% | 71% | 58% |
| Make Frozen Four | 15% | 17% | 14% |
| Win national title | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
Merrimack
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 16% | 22% | 11% |
| Win conference tournament | 15% | 15% | 14% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 59% | 67% | 52% |
| Make Frozen Four | 12% | 14% | 9.8% |
| Win national title | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
Simulated 2026-11-07: remaining games from our model, 2026-27 conference tournament formats, NCAA field = 6 conference champions + 10 at-large by NPI. Conference tiebreakers random; NCAA bracket seeded straight by NPI. A shootout or OT win counts as a win here.
Season Stats Comparison
| Providence | Stat | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 6-1 |
| 3.86 | Goals/Game | 4.67 |
| 2.43 | Goals Against/Game | 3.22 |
| +10 | Goal Differential | +13 |
| 3-1 | Home Record | 4-0 |
| 2-1 | Away Record | 2-1 |
| 11.8% (4/34) | Power Play % | 24.1% (7/29) |
| 80.0% (20/25) | Penalty Kill % | 75.0% (18/24) |
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Games)
Merrimack: 2-3
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | @ Providence | W 3-2 OT |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Providence | W 3-2 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Providence | L 2-4 |
| Mar 01, 2025 | vs Providence | L 1-2 |
| Feb 28, 2025 | @ Providence | L 2-3 |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Providence
3-2 L5
L
L
W
W
W
| Nov 5 | vs Connecticut | 5-6 |
| Oct 31 | @ Quinnipiac | 1-5 |
| Oct 24 | vs Mass.-Lowell | 5-2 |
| Oct 23 | @ Mass.-Lowell | 3-0 |
| Oct 16 | @ Union | 3-2 OT |
Merrimack
4-0 L5
W
T
W
W
W
| Nov 6 | vs Holy Cross | 6-2 |
| Oct 31 | vs Connecticut | 5-5 OT |
| Oct 30 | vs Connecticut | 5-4 |
| Oct 24 | @ Notre Dame | 6-3 |
| Oct 23 | @ Notre Dame | 2-1 OT |
Played for the Other Side (2026-27 CHN rosters)
No one on either roster was on the other team's roster in an earlier season (CHN rosters go back to 2020-21).
Providence Size Extremes
- TallestGibson Homer G 6-6
- ShortestAaron Matthews G, Andrew Centrella D, Beau Jelsma F 5-9
- HeaviestAleksi Kivioja F 220 lb
- LightestAaron Matthews G 165 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Merrimack Size Extremes
- TallestJacob Frasca F 6-5
- ShortestAustin Oravetz D, Nick Pierre F, Nolan Flamand F, Tristen Doyle D 5-9
- HeaviestJacob Frasca F 225 lb
- LightestTy Daneault F 161 lb
28 players on the listed roster
Providence Top Scorers
- Logan Sawyer 1G / 8A / 9P
- Julius Sumpf 0G / 9A / 9P
- John Mustard 3G / 4A / 7P
- Quinn Mantei 1G / 6A / 7P
- Jonathan Fauchon 4G / 2A / 6P
Merrimack Top Scorers
- Trevor Hoskin 4G / 12A / 16P
- Nick Pierre 10G / 2A / 12P
- Justin Gill 3G / 7A / 10P
- Ty Daneault 4G / 5A / 9P
- Seamus Powell 2G / 6A / 8P
Providence Goalies
- Jack Parsons 6GP / 0.930 SV%
- Gibson Homer 2GP / 0.838 SV%
Merrimack Goalies
- Linards Feldbergs 6GP / 0.903 SV%
- Ryan Keyes 2GP / 0.885 SV%