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Penn State
Michigan
2026-11-13
Penn State
2-4-2
O
O
T
W
W
2-0-2 L5
L2
VS
Upcoming
Michigan
8-1
W
L
W
W
W
4-1 L5
Our Prediction
Pick
Michigan
Predicted Score
2 - 4
Total: 6.3
Confidence
Very High
Elo Edge: +282
Penn State
19%
Michigan
81%
Model Line Projections
Spread
Michigan +1.6
Total
O/U 6.3
What's at Stake (season simulated 40,000 times)
Penn State
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Win conference tournament | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Make NCAA tournament | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Make Frozen Four | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Win national title | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Michigan
| Now | With a win | With a loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win conference regular season | 48% | 50% | 39% |
| Win conference tournament | 43% | 44% | 42% |
| Make NCAA tournament | >99% | >99% | 99% |
| Make Frozen Four | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Win national title | 19% | 19% | 18% |
Simulated 2026-11-07: remaining games from our model, 2026-27 conference tournament formats, NCAA field = 6 conference champions + 10 at-large by NPI. Conference tiebreakers random; NCAA bracket seeded straight by NPI. A shootout or OT win counts as a win here.
Season Stats Comparison
| Penn State | Stat | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 2-4-2 | Record | 8-1 |
| 2.78 | Goals/Game | 5.11 |
| 3.67 | Goals Against/Game | 2.56 |
| -8 | Goal Differential | +23 |
| 2-3-1 | Home Record | 4-0 |
| 0-3-1 | Away Record | 4-1 |
| 24.0% (6/25) | Power Play % | 25.0% (6/24) |
| 82.4% (28/34) | Penalty Kill % | 76.0% (19/25) |
Head-to-Head History (Last 5 Games)
Michigan: 3-1-1
| Date | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | vs Penn State | W 5-2 |
| Feb 14, 2026 | vs Penn State | W 6-3 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | vs Penn State | T 4-4 OT |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Penn State | L 2-4 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | @ Penn State | W 7-1 |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Penn State
2-0-2 L5
O
O
T
W
W
| Nov 6 | vs Notre Dame | 4-5 OT |
| Oct 31 | @ Minnesota | 3-4 OT |
| Oct 30 | @ Minnesota | 1-1 OT |
| Oct 24 | vs Canisius | 3-2 OT |
| Oct 23 | vs Canisius | 5-1 |
Michigan
4-1 L5
W
L
W
W
W
| Nov 1 | @ Ohio State | 5-4 OT |
| Oct 31 | @ Ohio State | 2-5 |
| Oct 23 | vs Western Michigan | 3-2 |
| Oct 17 | @ Denver | 4-3 |
| Oct 16 | @ Denver | 4-1 |
Played for the Other Side (2026-27 CHN rosters)
No one on either roster was on the other team's roster in an earlier season (CHN rosters go back to 2020-21).
Penn State Size Extremes
- TallestCrew Petty G, Jackson Smith D, Nolan Collins D 6-4
- ShortestJustin Poirier F, Lev Katzin F 5-8
- HeaviestNolan Collins D 220 lb
- LightestReese Laubach F 170 lb
25 players on the listed roster
Michigan Size Extremes
- TallestJack Nesbitt F, Will Horcoff F 6-5
- ShortestGarrett Schifsky F, Jayden Perron F, Josh Orrico D, Miles Gust D 5-9
- HeaviestWill Horcoff F 204 lb
- LightestJosh Orrico D 172 lb
27 players on the listed roster
Penn State Top Scorers
- Justin Poirier 5G / 7A / 12P
- Jackson Smith 2G / 9A / 11P
- Justin Larose 2G / 5A / 7P
- Kale Dach 2G / 4A / 6P
- Dane Dowiak 3G / 1A / 4P
Michigan Top Scorers
- Michael Hage 1G / 12A / 13P
- Jayden Perron 7G / 5A / 12P
- Malcolm Spence 5G / 4A / 9P
- Cole McKinney 5G / 3A / 8P
- Nick Moldenhauer 1G / 7A / 8P
Penn State Goalies
- Joshua Fleming 5GP / 0.912 SV%
- Ryder Fetterolf 4GP / 0.892 SV%
Michigan Goalies
- Jack Ivankovic 7GP / 0.918 SV%