Week 6 Predictions
NFL 2025 Season
This Week
15
Games
0
Live
15
Final
10-5
ML Record
+27.3%
ML ROI
74/120
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date
93 total predictions
62-31
ML (66.7%)
+0.1%
ML ROI
53-39-1
Spread
+9.1%
Spread ROI
50-43
Totals
+2.3%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
Understanding Our Metrics
Win Rate (%)
Percentage of correct predictions. At standard -110 odds, you need 52.4% to break even. Professional sports bettors typically achieve 54-57% long-term.
ROI (Return on Investment)
Profit/loss as a percentage of total wagered. Example: +5% ROI means $5 profit per $100 wagered. Our ROI assumes flat $100 bets at -110 odds.
Confidence (%)
Model's calculated probability for the predicted outcome. Higher confidence = stronger conviction. Note: 70% confidence does NOT mean 70% guaranteed win rate.
Sample Size Matters
Results from 20 games are far less reliable than 200 games. We show sample sizes so you can judge statistical significance. Small samples (under 50) should be viewed with caution.
High Confidence Strategy
(65%+ ML confidence)
OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023)
*ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons.
Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing.
CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023:
61.3%
(73-46, +17.1% ROI)
CI: 52-70%
2024:
69.7%
(83-36, +33.2% ROI)
CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set.
Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2025 Season (Live Tracking)
28-13
Filtered ML
+0.5%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
3
8:15 PM ET
Final
PHI
(4-1)
@
NYG
(1-4)
17 - 34
Final Score
Winner
Away
62%
✗
ML All
Total
Over 40.5
(44.6)
70%
+13.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 37.6 vs 51 (13.4pt diff)
Total: 37.6 vs 51 (13.4pt diff)
11
9:30 AM ET
Final
DEN
(3-2)
@
NYJ
(0-5)
13 - 11
Final Score
Winner
Away
82%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 43.5
(43.2)
70%
+19.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.6 vs 24 (19.6pt diff)
Total: 43.6 vs 24 (19.6pt diff)
6
1:00 PM ET
Final
LA
(3-2)
@
BAL
(1-4)
17 - 3
Final Score
Winner
Away
69%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 43.5
(40.8)
70%
+23.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 43.3 vs 20 (23.3pt diff)
Total: 43.3 vs 20 (23.3pt diff)
15
1:00 PM ET
Final
DAL
(2-3)
@
CAR
(2-3)
27 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Away
92%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 47.5
(42.6)
70%
+10.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 46.7 vs 57 (10.3pt diff)
Total: 46.7 vs 57 (10.3pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
ARI
(2-3)
@
IND
(4-1)
27 - 31
Final Score
Winner
Home
87%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5
(45.4)
70%
+11.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.3 vs 58 (11.7pt diff)
Total: 46.3 vs 58 (11.7pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
SEA
(3-2)
@
JAX
(4-1)
20 - 12
Final Score
Winner
Home
72%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 47.5
(40.1)
70%
+17.2pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 49.2 vs 32 (17.2pt diff)
Total: 49.2 vs 32 (17.2pt diff)
1
1:00 PM ET
Final
LAC
(3-2)
@
MIA
(1-4)
29 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Away
51%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 45.5
(42.3)
70%
+9.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.7 vs 56 (9.3pt diff)
Total: 46.7 vs 56 (9.3pt diff)
4
1:00 PM ET
Final
NE
(3-2)
@
NO
(1-4)
25 - 19
Final Score
Winner
Home
64%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5
(38.2)
70%
+4.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 48.4 vs 44 (4.4pt diff)
Total: 48.4 vs 44 (4.4pt diff)
8
1:00 PM ET
Final
CLE
(1-4)
@
PIT
(3-1)
9 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Home
72%
✓
ML All
Total
Over 37.5
(40.0)
70%
+8.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 40.3 vs 32 (8.3pt diff)
Total: 40.3 vs 32 (8.3pt diff)
5
4:05 PM ET
Final
TEN
(1-4)
@
LV
(1-4)
10 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Home
64%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5
(39.4)
70%
+9.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 39.4 vs 30 (9.4pt diff)
Total: 39.4 vs 30 (9.4pt diff)
14
4:25 PM ET
Final
CIN
(2-3)
@
GB
(2-2)
18 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Home
90%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.5
(39.7)
70%
+0.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 45.7 vs 45 (0.7pt diff)
Total: 45.7 vs 45 (0.7pt diff)
10
4:25 PM ET
Final
SF
(4-1)
@
TB
(4-1)
19 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Home
81%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5
(40.5)
70%
+1.5pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 47.5 vs 49 (1.5pt diff)
Total: 47.5 vs 49 (1.5pt diff)
2
8:20 PM ET
Final
DET
(4-1)
@
KC
(2-3)
17 - 30
Final Score
Winner
Home
54%
✓
ML All
Total
Under 51.5
(39.3)
70%
+1.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 48.6 vs 47 (1.6pt diff)
Total: 48.6 vs 47 (1.6pt diff)
12
7:15 PM ET
Final
BUF
(4-1)
@
ATL
(2-2)
14 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Away
86%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 49.5
(45.4)
70%
+8.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 46.9 vs 38 (8.9pt diff)
Total: 46.9 vs 38 (8.9pt diff)
9
8:15 PM ET
Final
CHI
(2-2)
@
WAS
(3-2)
25 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Home
73%
✗
ML All
Total
Under 49.5
(46.3)
70%
+1.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 47.2 vs 49 (1.8pt diff)
Total: 47.2 vs 49 (1.8pt diff)
↻