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Week 5 Predictions

NFL 2025 Season

This Week
14
Games
0
Live
14
Final
7-7
ML Record
-4.5%
ML ROI
52/105
Pick'em Pts
Season to Date 78 total predictions
53-25
ML (67.9%)
+1.8%
ML ROI
44-34
Spread
+7.0%
Spread ROI
41-37
Totals
+0.2%
Totals ROI
ⓘ 52.4% = breakeven at -110 odds
High Confidence Strategy (65%+ ML confidence) OOS-VALIDATED
151-77
OOS Record
66.2%
Win Rate
+26.4%
ROI*
59.9%-72.1%
95% CI
Worst Season: 61.3% (2023) *ROI assumes -110 odds; actual odds vary by game
True out-of-sample: 228 games from 2023-2024 seasons. Thresholds locked from 2022 validation set before testing. CI lower bound exceeds breakeven.
Year-by-Year Performance:
2023: 61.3% (73-46, +17.1% ROI) CI: 52-70%
2024: 69.7% (83-36, +33.2% ROI) CI: 61-77%
Note: Year-to-year results vary significantly (8pp swing). Single-season performance ranged from 61% to 70% in our test set. Conservative estimate: expect 55-65% in any given season.
2025 Season (Live Tracking)
24-9
Filtered ML
+4.3%
ML ROI
All Games
Live
Upcoming
Completed
Primetime
6
8:15 PM ET
Final
SF
(3-1)
@
LA
(3-1)
26 - 23
Final Score
Winner
Home 61% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 43.5 (36.2) 70% +2.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.6 vs 49 (2.4pt diff)
10
9:30 AM ET
Final
MIN
(2-2)
@
CLE
(1-3)
21 - 17
Final Score
Winner
Away 74% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 35.5 (35.2) 70% +1.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 36.2 vs 38 (1.8pt diff)
3
1:00 PM ET
Final
HOU
(1-3)
@
BAL
(1-3)
44 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Away 57% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5 (39.2) 70% +11.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 42.6 vs 54 (11.4pt diff)
5
1:00 PM ET
Final
MIA
(1-3)
@
CAR
(1-3)
24 - 27
Final Score
Winner
Away 60% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 44.5 (34.4) 70% +6.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 44.3 vs 51 (6.7pt diff)
11
1:00 PM ET
Final
LV
(1-3)
@
IND
(3-1)
6 - 40
Final Score
Winner
Home 79% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 46.5 (44.7) 70% +3.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 49.1 vs 46 (3.1pt diff)
7
1:00 PM ET
Final
NYG
(1-3)
@
NO
(0-4)
14 - 26
Final Score
Winner
Home 61% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 41.5 (38.9) 70% +0.3pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 2/2 correct
Total: 39.7 vs 40 (0.3pt diff)
4
1:00 PM ET
Final
DAL
(1-3)
@
NYJ
(0-4)
37 - 22
Final Score
Winner
Away 60% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 48.5 (46.2) 70% +12.4pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 46.6 vs 59 (12.4pt diff)
13
1:00 PM ET
Final
DEN
(2-2)
@
PHI
(4-0)
21 - 17
Final Score
Winner
Home 90% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 44.5 (40.1) 70% +8.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 46.1 vs 38 (8.1pt diff)
1
4:05 PM ET
Final
TEN
(0-4)
@
ARI
(2-2)
22 - 21
Final Score
Winner
Home 54% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 41.5 (42.1) 70% +1.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 41.9 vs 43 (1.1pt diff)
9
4:05 PM ET
Final
TB
(3-1)
@
SEA
(3-1)
38 - 35
Final Score
Winner
Home 73% ✗
ML All
Total
Over 44.5 (47.4) 70% +27.9pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 45.1 vs 73 (27.9pt diff)
12
4:25 PM ET
Final
DET
(3-1)
@
CIN
(2-2)
37 - 24
Final Score
Winner
Away 86% ✓
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (45.3) 70% +11.6pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 1/2 correct
Total: 49.4 vs 61 (11.6pt diff)
2
4:25 PM ET
Final
WAS
(2-2)
@
LAC
(3-1)
27 - 10
Final Score
Winner
Home 55% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 47.5 (38.0) 70% +11.8pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 48.8 vs 37 (11.8pt diff)
14
8:20 PM ET
Final
NE
(2-2)
@
BUF
(4-0)
23 - 20
Final Score
Winner
Home 94% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 49.5 (42.0) 70% +6.7pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 49.7 vs 43 (6.7pt diff)
8
8:15 PM ET
Final
KC
(2-2)
@
JAX
(3-1)
28 - 31
Final Score
Winner
Away 72% ✗
ML All
Total
Under 45.5 (40.7) 70% +16.1pt
O/U All
Model Performance: 0/2 correct
Total: 42.9 vs 59 (16.1pt diff)
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