Pick'em Mode
Week 9Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
65
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
61.9%
Percentage
9-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 ARI
@
 DAL
|
ARI -10.5
Strong favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 17
|
| 13 |
 LAC
@
 TEN
|
TEN -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
27 - 20
|
| 12 |
 BAL
@
 MIA
|
MIA -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
28 - 6
|
| 11 |
 CAR
@
 GB
|
CAR -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 13
|
| 10 |
 MIN
@
 DET
|
MIN -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 24
|
| 9 |
 ATL
@
 NE
|
ATL -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
23 - 24
|
| 8 |
 SEA
@
 WAS
|
WAS -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
38 - 14
|
| 7 |
 SF
@
 NYG
|
NYG -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
34 - 24
|
| 6 |
 IND
@
 PIT
|
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
20 - 27
|
| 5 |
 JAX
@
 LV
|
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
30 - 29
|
| 4 |
 KC
@
 BUF
|
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
21 - 28
|
| 3 |
 CHI
@
 CIN
|
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
47 - 42
|
| 2 |
 DEN
@
 HOU
|
DEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
18 - 15
|
| 1 |
 NO
@
 LA
|
NO -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
10 - 34
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.