Pick'em Mode
Week 10Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
80
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
76.2%
Percentage
11-3
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 LV
@
 DEN
|
LV -9.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
7 - 10
|
| 13 |
 BUF
@
 MIA
|
MIA -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
13 - 30
|
| 12 |
 DET
@
 WAS
|
WAS -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
44 - 22
|
| 11 |
 ARI
@
 SEA
|
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
22 - 44
|
| 10 |
 ATL
@
 IND
|
ATL -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
25 - 31
|
| 9 |
 LA
@
 SF
|
SF -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
42 - 26
|
| 8 |
 NO
@
 CAR
|
NO -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 7
|
| 7 |
 NYG
@
 CHI
|
NYG -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
20 - 24
|
| 6 |
 BAL
@
 MIN
|
MIN -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
27 - 19
|
| 5 |
 PIT
@
 LAC
|
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
10 - 25
|
| 4 |
 NE
@
 TB
|
NE -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 23
|
| 3 |
 JAX
@
 HOU
|
HOU -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+3 pts
29 - 36
|
| 2 |
 PHI
@
 GB
|
PHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
10 - 7
|
| 1 |
 CLE
@
 NYJ
|
NYJ -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
20 - 27
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.