Pick'em Mode

Week 11
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
96
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
80.0%
Percentage
11-4
Record
0
Pending
15
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
NE NE *
2025-11-13 20:15 Favorite
NYJ -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+15 pts
14 - 27
14
pts
GB GB *
@
NYG NYG
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
NYG -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
27 - 20
13
pts
BAL BAL *
@
CLE CLE
2025-11-16 16:25 Favorite
CLE -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
23 - 16
12
pts
TB TB
@
BUF BUF *
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
TB -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
32 - 44
11
pts
HOU HOU *
@
TEN TEN
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
TEN -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
16 - 13
10
pts
CIN CIN
@
PIT PIT *
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
CIN -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
12 - 34
9
pts
CAR CAR
@
ATL ATL *
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
CAR -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 27
8
pts
KC KC *
@
DEN DEN
2025-11-16 16:25 Favorite
DEN -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 22
7
pts
DAL DAL *
@
LV LV
2025-11-17 20:15 Favorite
LV -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
33 - 16
6
pts
SF SF *
@
ARI ARI
2025-11-16 16:05 Favorite
ARI -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
41 - 22
5
pts
SEA SEA
@
LA LA *
2025-11-16 16:05 Favorite
SEA -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
19 - 21
4
pts
CHI CHI
@
MIN MIN *
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
CHI -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 17
3
pts
LAC LAC *
@
JAX JAX
2025-11-16 13:00 Favorite
JAX -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
6 - 35
2
pts
DET DET
@
PHI PHI *
2025-11-16 20:20 Model
DET -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
9 - 16
1
pts
WAS WAS
@
MIA MIA *
2025-11-16 09:30 Model
WAS -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+1 pts
13 - 16

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 15 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.