Pick'em Mode
Week 11Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
90
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
75.0%
Percentage
10-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
 NYJ
@
 NE
|
NYJ -9.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
14 - 27
|
| 14 |
 SF
@
 ARI
|
ARI -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
41 - 22
|
| 13 |
 GB
@
 NYG
|
NYG -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
27 - 20
|
| 12 |
 BAL
@
 CLE
|
CLE -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
23 - 16
|
| 11 |
 DET
@
 PHI
|
PHI -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
9 - 16
|
| 10 |
 TB
@
 BUF
|
TB -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
32 - 44
|
| 9 |
 HOU
@
 TEN
|
TEN -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
16 - 13
|
| 8 |
 DAL
@
 LV
|
LV -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
33 - 16
|
| 7 |
 LAC
@
 JAX
|
JAX -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
6 - 35
|
| 6 |
 WAS
@
 MIA
|
WAS -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
13 - 16
|
| 5 |
 CAR
@
 ATL
|
CAR -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 27
|
| 4 |
 CHI
@
 MIN
|
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 17
|
| 3 |
 CIN
@
 PIT
|
PIT -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
12 - 34
|
| 2 |
 SEA
@
 LA
|
SEA -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
19 - 21
|
| 1 |
 KC
@
 DEN
|
KC -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
19 - 22
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick.
1= least confident,15= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.