Pick'em Mode
Week 4Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
104
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
76.5%
Percentage
11-4
Record
1
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 NO
@
 BUF
|
NO -15.5
Lock
|
Correct
+16 pts
19 - 31
|
| 15 |
 SEA
@
 ARI
|
ARI -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
23 - 20
|
| 14 |
 CLE
@
 DET
|
CLE -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
10 - 34
|
| 13 |
 CIN
@
 DEN
|
CIN -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
3 - 28
|
| 12 |
 TEN
@
 HOU
|
TEN -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
0 - 26
|
| 11 |
 GB
@
 DAL
|
DAL -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
40 - 40
|
| 10 |
 LAC
@
 NYG
|
NYG -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
18 - 21
|
| 9 |
 IND
@
 LA
|
IND -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
20 - 27
|
| 8 |
 CHI
@
 LV
|
LV -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
25 - 24
|
| 7 |
 CAR
@
 NE
|
CAR -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
13 - 42
|
| 6 |
 PHI
@
 TB
|
TB -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
31 - 25
|
| 5 |
 JAX
@
 SF
|
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 21
|
| 4 |
 MIN
@
 PIT
|
PIT -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 24
|
| 3 |
 WAS
@
 ATL
|
WAS -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+3 pts
27 - 34
|
| 2 |
 BAL
@
 KC
|
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 37
|
| 1 |
 NYJ
@
 MIA
|
NYJ -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
21 - 27
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.