Pick'em Mode

Week 3
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
98
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
72.1%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
2025 Season
← Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 →
Full Predictions
Pts Matchup Spread Result
16
MIAMIA @ BUFBUF
2025-09-18 20:15 Favorite
MIA -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+16 pts
21 - 31
15
GBGB @ CLECLE
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
CLE -8.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 13
14
NONO @ SEASEA
2025-09-21 16:05 Favorite
NO -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
13 - 44
13
NYJNYJ @ TBTB
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
NYJ -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
27 - 29
12
KCKC @ NYGNYG
2025-09-21 20:20 Favorite
NYG -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
22 - 9
11
INDIND @ TENTEN
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
TEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
41 - 20
10
ATLATL @ CARCAR
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
0 - 30
9
DETDET @ BALBAL
2025-09-22 20:15 Favorite
DET -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 30
8
LALA @ PHIPHI
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
LA -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
26 - 33
7
CINCIN @ MINMIN
2025-09-21 13:00 Favorite
CIN -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
10 - 48
6
LVLV @ WASWAS
2025-09-21 13:00 Model
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
24 - 41
5
DENDEN @ LACLAC
2025-09-21 16:05 Model
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 23
4
PITPIT @ NENE
2025-09-21 13:00 Model
NE -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 14
3
HOUHOU @ JAXJAX
2025-09-21 13:00 Model
HOU -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+3 pts
10 - 17
2
ARIARI @ SFSF
2025-09-21 16:25 Model
ARI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
15 - 16
1
DALDAL @ CHICHI
2025-09-21 16:25 Model
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
14 - 31

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.