Pick'em Mode
Week 3Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
98
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
72.1%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
MIA
BUF *
MIA -12.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+16 pts
21 - 31
15
pts
GB *
CLE
CLE -8.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 13
14
pts
NO
SEA *
NO -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
13 - 44
13
pts
NYJ
TB *
NYJ -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
27 - 29
12
pts
KC *
NYG
NYG -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
22 - 9
11
pts
IND *
TEN
TEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
41 - 20
10
pts
ATL *
CAR
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
0 - 30
9
pts
DET
BAL *
DET -4.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 30
8
pts
LA
PHI *
LA -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
26 - 33
7
pts
CIN
MIN *
CIN -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
10 - 48
6
pts
LV
WAS *
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
24 - 41
5
pts
DEN
LAC *
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 23
4
pts
PIT
NE *
NE -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 14
3
pts
HOU
JAX *
HOU -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+3 pts
10 - 17
2
pts
ARI
SF *
ARI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
15 - 16
1
pts
DAL
CHI *
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
14 - 31
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.