Pick'em Mode
Week 3Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
97
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
71.3%
Percentage
11-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 MIA
@
 BUF
|
MIA -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+16 pts
21 - 31
|
| 15 |
 ARI
@
 SF
|
ARI -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
15 - 16
|
| 14 |
 GB
@
 CLE
|
CLE -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 13
|
| 13 |
 NO
@
 SEA
|
NO -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
13 - 44
|
| 12 |
 LA
@
 PHI
|
PHI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 33
|
| 11 |
 NYJ
@
 TB
|
NYJ -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
27 - 29
|
| 10 |
 KC
@
 NYG
|
NYG -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
22 - 9
|
| 9 |
 DET
@
 BAL
|
DET -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 30
|
| 8 |
 CIN
@
 MIN
|
CIN -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
10 - 48
|
| 7 |
 ATL
@
 CAR
|
ATL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
0 - 30
|
| 6 |
 LV
@
 WAS
|
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
24 - 41
|
| 5 |
 DEN
@
 LAC
|
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 23
|
| 4 |
 HOU
@
 JAX
|
HOU -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+4 pts
10 - 17
|
| 3 |
 PIT
@
 NE
|
PIT -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 14
|
| 2 |
 IND
@
 TEN
|
TEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
41 - 20
|
| 1 |
 DAL
@
 CHI
|
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
14 - 31
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.