Pick'em Mode
Week 14Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
64
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
61.0%
Percentage
8-6
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 SEA
@
 ATL
|
ATL -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
37 - 9
|
| 13 |
 CIN
@
 BUF
|
CIN -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
34 - 39
|
| 12 |
 PIT
@
 BAL
|
PIT -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 22
|
| 11 |
 TEN
@
 CLE
|
TEN -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 29
|
| 10 |
 IND
@
 JAX
|
IND -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
19 - 36
|
| 9 |
 DEN
@
 LV
|
LV -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
24 - 17
|
| 8 |
 HOU
@
 KC
|
HOU -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 10
|
| 7 |
 DAL
@
 DET
|
DAL -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
30 - 44
|
| 6 |
 NO
@
 TB
|
NO -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 20
|
| 5 |
 CHI
@
 GB
|
CHI -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
21 - 28
|
| 4 |
 WAS
@
 MIN
|
WAS -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
0 - 31
|
| 3 |
 MIA
@
 NYJ
|
MIA -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
34 - 10
|
| 2 |
 LA
@
 ARI
|
ARI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
45 - 17
|
| 1 |
 PHI
@
 LAC
|
LAC -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 22
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.