Pick'em Mode
Week 13Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
109
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
80.1%
Percentage
11-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 MIN
@
 SEA
|
MIN -12.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+16 pts
0 - 26
|
| 15 |
 LV
@
 LAC
|
LV -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
14 - 31
|
| 14 |
 CHI
@
 PHI
|
PHI -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
24 - 15
|
| 13 |
 NYG
@
 NE
|
NYG -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
15 - 33
|
| 12 |
 DEN
@
 WAS
|
WAS -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
27 - 26
|
| 11 |
 SF
@
 CLE
|
CLE -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
26 - 8
|
| 10 |
 NO
@
 MIA
|
NO -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
17 - 21
|
| 9 |
 ARI
@
 TB
|
ARI -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
17 - 20
|
| 8 |
 KC
@
 DAL
|
DAL -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 31
|
| 7 |
 CIN
@
 BAL
|
CIN -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
32 - 14
|
| 6 |
 ATL
@
 NYJ
|
NYJ -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 27
|
| 5 |
 BUF
@
 PIT
|
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
26 - 7
|
| 4 |
 GB
@
 DET
|
GB -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 24
|
| 3 |
 JAX
@
 TEN
|
TEN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+3 pts
25 - 3
|
| 2 |
 LA
@
 CAR
|
CAR -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 31
|
| 1 |
 HOU
@
 IND
|
IND -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
20 - 16
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.