Pick'em Mode
Week 15Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
105
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
77.2%
Percentage
9-7
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 NYJ
@
 JAX
|
NYJ -13.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+16 pts
20 - 48
|
| 15 |
 IND
@
 SEA
|
IND -13.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
16 - 18
|
| 14 |
 LV
@
 PHI
|
LV -12.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
0 - 31
|
| 13 |
 TEN
@
 SF
|
TEN -12.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
24 - 37
|
| 12 |
 ARI
@
 HOU
|
ARI -10.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
20 - 40
|
| 11 |
 CLE
@
 CHI
|
CLE -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
3 - 31
|
| 10 |
 BUF
@
 NE
|
NE -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
35 - 31
|
| 9 |
 CAR
@
 NO
|
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
17 - 20
|
| 8 |
 MIN
@
 DAL
|
MIN -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
34 - 26
|
| 7 |
 ATL
@
 TB
|
ATL -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
29 - 28
|
| 6 |
 DET
@
 LA
|
LA -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
34 - 41
|
| 5 |
 MIA
@
 PIT
|
MIA -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
15 - 28
|
| 4 |
 BAL
@
 CIN
|
BAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 0
|
| 3 |
 LAC
@
 KC
|
LAC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 13
|
| 2 |
 WAS
@
 NYG
|
WAS -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
29 - 21
|
| 1 |
 GB
@
 DEN
|
DEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 34
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.