Pick'em Mode
Week 6Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
91
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
86.7%
Percentage
11-3
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 CLE
@
 PHI
|
CLE -8.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
16 - 20
|
| 13 |
 BUF
@
 NYJ
|
NYJ -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
23 - 20
|
| 12 |
 WAS
@
 BAL
|
WAS -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
23 - 30
|
| 11 |
 ARI
@
 GB
|
ARI -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
13 - 34
|
| 10 |
 CIN
@
 NYG
|
NYG -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
17 - 7
|
| 9 |
 SF
@
 SEA
|
SF -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
36 - 24
|
| 8 |
 HOU
@
 NE
|
NE -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
41 - 21
|
| 7 |
 PIT
@
 LV
|
LV -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
32 - 13
|
| 6 |
 DET
@
 DAL
|
DAL -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
47 - 9
|
| 5 |
 JAX
@
 CHI
|
JAX -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
16 - 35
|
| 4 |
 ATL
@
 CAR
|
ATL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 20
|
| 3 |
 TB
@
 NO
|
NO -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+3 pts
51 - 27
|
| 2 |
 IND
@
 TEN
|
TEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
20 - 17
|
| 1 |
 LAC
@
 DEN
|
LAC -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 16
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.