Pick'em Mode
Week 5Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
60
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
57.1%
Percentage
6-8
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 CAR
@
 CHI
|
CAR -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
10 - 36
|
| 13 |
 ARI
@
 SF
|
ARI -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 23
|
| 12 |
 LV
@
 DEN
|
LV -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
18 - 34
|
| 11 |
 NYG
@
 SEA
|
NYG -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
29 - 20
|
| 10 |
 NO
@
 KC
|
NO -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
13 - 26
|
| 9 |
 IND
@
 JAX
|
IND -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
34 - 37
|
| 8 |
 CLE
@
 WAS
|
CLE -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
13 - 34
|
| 7 |
 NYJ
@
 MIN
|
NYJ -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
17 - 23
|
| 6 |
 BAL
@
 CIN
|
BAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
41 - 38
|
| 5 |
 MIA
@
 NE
|
MIA -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 10
|
| 4 |
 DAL
@
 PIT
|
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 17
|
| 3 |
 TB
@
 ATL
|
ATL -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 36
|
| 2 |
 BUF
@
 HOU
|
HOU -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 23
|
| 1 |
 GB
@
 LA
|
GB -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 19
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.