Pick'em Mode
Week 4Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
104
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
76.5%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
NE
SF *
NE -10.5
Strong favorite
Correct
+16 pts
13 - 30
15
pts
DEN
NYJ *
DEN -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 9
14
pts
KC *
LAC
LAC -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
17 - 10
13
pts
JAX
HOU *
JAX -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
20 - 24
12
pts
DAL *
NYG
NYG -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
20 - 15
11
pts
CIN *
CAR
CAR -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
34 - 24
10
pts
SEA
DET *
SEA -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+10 pts
29 - 42
9
pts
WAS
ARI *
WAS -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
42 - 14
8
pts
LA
CHI *
LA -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+8 pts
18 - 24
7
pts
NO
ATL *
NO -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
24 - 26
6
pts
PIT
IND *
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
24 - 27
5
pts
MIN
GB *
MIN -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 29
4
pts
BUF
BAL *
BUF -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
10 - 35
3
pts
TEN
MIA *
TEN -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 12
2
pts
CLE
LV *
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+2 pts
16 - 20
1
pts
PHI
TB *
TB -1.0
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
16 - 33
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.