Pick'em Mode
Week 4Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
104
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
76.5%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 NE
@
 SF
|
NE -10.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+16 pts
13 - 30
|
| 15 |
 DEN
@
 NYJ
|
DEN -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 9
|
| 14 |
 KC
@
 LAC
|
LAC -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
17 - 10
|
| 13 |
 JAX
@
 HOU
|
JAX -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
20 - 24
|
| 12 |
 DAL
@
 NYG
|
NYG -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
20 - 15
|
| 11 |
 CIN
@
 CAR
|
CAR -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
34 - 24
|
| 10 |
 SEA
@
 DET
|
SEA -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
29 - 42
|
| 9 |
 WAS
@
 ARI
|
WAS -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
42 - 14
|
| 8 |
 LA
@
 CHI
|
LA -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
18 - 24
|
| 7 |
 NO
@
 ATL
|
NO -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
24 - 26
|
| 6 |
 PIT
@
 IND
|
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
24 - 27
|
| 5 |
 MIN
@
 GB
|
MIN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 29
|
| 4 |
 BUF
@
 BAL
|
BUF -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
10 - 35
|
| 3 |
 TEN
@
 MIA
|
TEN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
31 - 12
|
| 2 |
 CLE
@
 LV
|
LV -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+2 pts
16 - 20
|
| 1 |
 PHI
@
 TB
|
TB -1.0
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
16 - 33
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.