Pick'em Mode

Week 3
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
55
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
40.4%
Percentage
8-8
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
WAS WAS
@
CIN CIN *
2024-09-23 20:15 Favorite
WAS -7.5
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 33
15
pts
NE NE
@
NYJ NYJ *
2024-09-19 20:15 Favorite
NE -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+15 pts
3 - 24
14
pts
NYG NYG
@
CLE CLE *
2024-09-22 13:00 Favorite
NYG -6.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 15
13
pts
DEN DEN
@
TB TB *
2024-09-22 13:00 Favorite
DEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 7
12
pts
SF SF *
@
LA LA
2024-09-22 16:25 Favorite
LA -6.0
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 27
11
pts
CAR CAR
@
LV LV *
2024-09-22 16:05 Favorite
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
36 - 22
10
pts
MIA MIA
@
SEA SEA *
2024-09-22 16:05 Favorite
MIA -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
3 - 24
9
pts
JAX JAX
@
BUF BUF *
2024-09-23 19:30 Favorite
JAX -4.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+9 pts
10 - 47
8
pts
GB GB
@
TEN TEN *
2024-09-22 13:00 Favorite
GB -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 14
7
pts
KC KC *
@
ATL ATL
2024-09-22 20:20 Favorite
ATL -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
22 - 17
6
pts
LAC LAC
@
PIT PIT *
2024-09-22 13:00 Favorite
LAC -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
10 - 20
5
pts
DET DET *
@
ARI ARI
2024-09-22 16:25 Favorite
ARI -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
20 - 13
4
pts
PHI PHI
@
NO NO *
2024-09-22 13:00 Model
PHI -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 12
3
pts
BAL BAL
@
DAL DAL *
2024-09-22 16:25 Model
DAL -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 25
2
pts
CHI CHI
@
IND IND *
2024-09-22 13:00 Model
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
16 - 21
1
pts
HOU HOU
@
MIN MIN *
2024-09-22 13:00 Model
MIN -2.0
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
7 - 34

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.