Pick'em Mode
Week 3Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
57
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
41.9%
Percentage
8-8
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 DET
@
 ARI
|
ARI -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+16 pts
20 - 13
|
| 15 |
 WAS
@
 CIN
|
WAS -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
38 - 33
|
| 14 |
 NE
@
 NYJ
|
NYJ -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
3 - 24
|
| 13 |
 NYG
@
 CLE
|
NYG -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
21 - 15
|
| 12 |
 DEN
@
 TB
|
DEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 7
|
| 11 |
 CAR
@
 LV
|
CAR -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
36 - 22
|
| 10 |
 KC
@
 ATL
|
ATL -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
22 - 17
|
| 9 |
 MIA
@
 SEA
|
MIA -4.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
3 - 24
|
| 8 |
 JAX
@
 BUF
|
JAX -4.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
10 - 47
|
| 7 |
 LAC
@
 PIT
|
LAC -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
10 - 20
|
| 6 |
 GB
@
 TEN
|
GB -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 14
|
| 5 |
 PHI
@
 NO
|
PHI -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 12
|
| 4 |
 BAL
@
 DAL
|
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
28 - 25
|
| 3 |
 HOU
@
 MIN
|
MIN -2.0
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
7 - 34
|
| 2 |
 CHI
@
 IND
|
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
16 - 21
|
| 1 |
 SF
@
 LA
|
SF -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
24 - 27
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.