Pick'em Mode

Week 2

Optimized Hybrid

Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.

Points Earned

136

Points Possible

42.6%

Percentage

8-8

Record

Pending

Pts	Matchup	Spread	Result
16	LV @ BAL 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	LV -9.0 Clear favorite	Wrong +0 pts 26 - 23
15	TB @ DET 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	TB -7.5 Clear favorite	Wrong +0 pts 20 - 16
14	NO @ DAL 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	NO -6.5 Moderate favorite	Wrong +0 pts 44 - 19
13	CIN @ KC 2024-09-15 16:25 Favorite	CIN -6.5 Moderate favorite	Correct +13 pts 25 - 26
12	CHI @ HOU 2024-09-15 20:20 Favorite	CHI -6.0 Moderate favorite	Correct +12 pts 13 - 19
11	ATL @ PHI 2024-09-16 20:15 Favorite	ATL -5.5 Moderate favorite	Wrong +0 pts 22 - 21
10	LAC @ CAR 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	CAR -5.0 Moderate favorite	Correct +10 pts 26 - 3
9	SF @ MIN 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	MIN -4.5 Moderate favorite	Wrong +0 pts 17 - 23
8	NYJ @ TEN 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	TEN -3.5 Slight favorite	Correct +8 pts 24 - 17
7	SEA @ NE 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	NE -3.5 Slight favorite	Correct +7 pts 23 - 20
6	CLE @ JAX 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	CLE -3.0 Slight favorite	Wrong +0 pts 18 - 13
5	PIT @ DEN 2024-09-15 16:25 Favorite	DEN -3.0 Slight favorite	Correct +5 pts 13 - 6
4	IND @ GB 2024-09-15 13:00 Favorite	GB -3.0 Slight favorite	Wrong +0 pts 10 - 16
3	BUF @ MIA 2024-09-12 20:15 Model	BUF -2.5 Slight favorite	Wrong +0 pts 31 - 10
2	LA @ ARI 2024-09-15 16:05 Model	ARI -1.0 Toss-up	Correct +2 pts 10 - 41
1	NYG @ WAS 2024-09-15 13:00 Model	NYG -1.5 Toss-up	Correct +1 pts 18 - 21

Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.