Pick'em Mode
Week 7Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
86
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
71.7%
Percentage
10-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
 CAR
@
 WAS
|
CAR -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
7 - 40
|
| 14 |
 TEN
@
 BUF
|
TEN -9.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
10 - 34
|
| 13 |
 LV
@
 LA
|
LA -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 20
|
| 12 |
 MIA
@
 IND
|
MIA -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
10 - 16
|
| 11 |
 CIN
@
 CLE
|
CLE -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
21 - 14
|
| 10 |
 BAL
@
 TB
|
TB -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
41 - 31
|
| 9 |
 SEA
@
 ATL
|
SEA -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
34 - 14
|
| 8 |
 PHI
@
 NYG
|
NYG -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
28 - 3
|
| 7 |
 NYJ
@
 PIT
|
PIT -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 37
|
| 6 |
 DEN
@
 NO
|
NO -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
33 - 10
|
| 5 |
 HOU
@
 GB
|
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
22 - 24
|
| 4 |
 KC
@
 SF
|
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 18
|
| 3 |
 NE
@
 JAX
|
NE -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+3 pts
16 - 32
|
| 2 |
 DET
@
 MIN
|
MIN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
31 - 29
|
| 1 |
 LAC
@
 ARI
|
ARI -1.0
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 17
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick.
1= least confident,15= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.