Pick'em Mode
Week 14Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
86
Points Earned
91
Points Possible
94.5%
Percentage
12-1
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |
 SEA
@
 ARI
|
ARI -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
30 - 18
|
| 12 |
 LV
@
 TB
|
LV -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
13 - 28
|
| 11 |
 CAR
@
 PHI
|
CAR -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
16 - 22
|
| 10 |
 CLE
@
 PIT
|
CLE -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
14 - 27
|
| 9 |
 CIN
@
 DAL
|
DAL -5.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
27 - 20
|
| 8 |
 ATL
@
 MIN
|
ATL -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
21 - 42
|
| 7 |
 CHI
@
 SF
|
CHI -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
13 - 38
|
| 6 |
 GB
@
 DET
|
GB -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
31 - 34
|
| 5 |
 NO
@
 NYG
|
NO -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
14 - 11
|
| 4 |
 JAX
@
 TEN
|
TEN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
10 - 6
|
| 3 |
 LAC
@
 KC
|
LAC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+3 pts
17 - 19
|
| 2 |
 NYJ
@
 MIA
|
NYJ -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
26 - 32
|
| 1 |
 BUF
@
 LA
|
BUF -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
42 - 44
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-13 to each pick.
1= least confident,13= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.