Pick'em Mode

Week 15
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
122
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
89.7%
Percentage
12-4
Record
0
Pending
16
pts
BAL BAL *
@
NYG NYG
2024-12-15 13:00 Favorite
NYG -16.5
Lock
Correct
+16 pts
35 - 14
15
pts
WAS WAS *
@
NO NO
2024-12-15 13:00 Favorite
NO -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+15 pts
20 - 19
14
pts
CHI CHI
@
MIN MIN *
2024-12-16 20:00 Favorite
CHI -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
12 - 30
13
pts
ATL ATL *
@
LV LV
2024-12-16 20:30 Favorite
LV -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+13 pts
15 - 9
12
pts
NE NE
@
ARI ARI *
2024-12-15 16:25 Favorite
NE -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+12 pts
17 - 30
11
pts
CIN CIN *
@
TEN TEN
2024-12-15 13:00 Favorite
TEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+11 pts
37 - 27
10
pts
PIT PIT
@
PHI PHI *
2024-12-15 16:25 Favorite
PIT -5.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
13 - 27
9
pts
IND IND
@
DEN DEN *
2024-12-15 16:25 Favorite
IND -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+9 pts
13 - 31
8
pts
KC KC *
@
CLE CLE
2024-12-15 13:00 Favorite
CLE -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
21 - 7
7
pts
NYJ NYJ *
@
JAX JAX
2024-12-15 13:00 Favorite
JAX -3.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
32 - 25
6
pts
TB TB
@
LAC LAC *
2024-12-15 16:25 Favorite
TB -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
40 - 17
5
pts
LA LA
@
SF SF *
2024-12-12 20:15 Favorite
LA -3.0
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
12 - 6
4
pts
GB GB *
@
SEA SEA
2024-12-15 20:20 Favorite
SEA -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
30 - 13
3
pts
MIA MIA
@
HOU HOU *
2024-12-15 13:00 Model
MIA -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+3 pts
12 - 20
2
pts
DAL DAL
@
CAR CAR *
2024-12-15 13:00 Model
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 14
1
pts
BUF BUF
@
DET DET *
2024-12-15 16:25 Model
BUF -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
48 - 42

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.