Pick'em Mode
Week 12Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
60
Points Earned
91
Points Possible
65.9%
Percentage
8-5
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |
 ARI
@
 SEA
|
ARI -13.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
6 - 16
|
| 12 |
 KC
@
 CAR
|
CAR -11.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
30 - 27
|
| 11 |
 TEN
@
 HOU
|
TEN -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
32 - 27
|
| 10 |
 DET
@
 IND
|
IND -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
24 - 6
|
| 9 |
 NE
@
 MIA
|
MIA -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
15 - 34
|
| 8 |
 TB
@
 NYG
|
NYG -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
30 - 7
|
| 7 |
 SF
@
 GB
|
SF -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
10 - 38
|
| 6 |
 DEN
@
 LV
|
LV -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
29 - 19
|
| 5 |
 MIN
@
 CHI
|
MIN -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
30 - 27
|
| 4 |
 PHI
@
 LA
|
PHI -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
37 - 20
|
| 3 |
 BAL
@
 LAC
|
LAC -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+3 pts
30 - 23
|
| 2 |
 PIT
@
 CLE
|
CLE -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 24
|
| 1 |
 DAL
@
 WAS
|
WAS -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
34 - 26
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-13 to each pick.
1= least confident,13= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.