Pick'em Mode
Week 11Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
87
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
82.9%
Percentage
11-3
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 JAX
@
 DET
|
JAX -14.0
Lock
|
Correct
+14 pts
6 - 52
|
| 13 |
 LV
@
 MIA
|
LV -8.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
19 - 34
|
| 12 |
 HOU
@
 DAL
|
DAL -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
34 - 10
|
| 11 |
 MIN
@
 TEN
|
TEN -6.0
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
23 - 13
|
| 10 |
 WAS
@
 PHI
|
WAS -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
18 - 26
|
| 9 |
 IND
@
 NYJ
|
IND -4.0
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 27
|
| 8 |
 CLE
@
 NO
|
CLE -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
14 - 35
|
| 7 |
 LA
@
 NE
|
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
28 - 22
|
| 6 |
 BAL
@
 PIT
|
PIT -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
16 - 18
|
| 5 |
 KC
@
 BUF
|
KC -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
21 - 30
|
| 4 |
 ATL
@
 DEN
|
ATL -2.0
Toss-up
|
Correct
+4 pts
6 - 38
|
| 3 |
 GB
@
 CHI
|
GB -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 19
|
| 2 |
 SEA
@
 SF
|
SF -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+2 pts
20 - 17
|
| 1 |
 CIN
@
 LAC
|
CIN -1.0
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
27 - 34
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.