Pick'em Mode

Week 10
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
78
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
74.3%
Percentage
9-5
Record
0
Pending
14
pts
TEN TEN
@
LAC LAC *
2024-11-10 16:05 Favorite
TEN -8.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
17 - 27
13
pts
DEN DEN
@
KC KC *
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
DEN -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
14 - 16
12
pts
PHI PHI *
@
DAL DAL
2024-11-10 16:25 Favorite
DAL -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+12 pts
34 - 6
11
pts
MIN MIN *
@
JAX JAX
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
JAX -7.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+11 pts
12 - 7
10
pts
NE NE
@
CHI CHI *
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
NE -6.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 3
9
pts
NYG NYG *
@
CAR CAR
2024-11-10 09:30 Favorite
CAR -6.5
Moderate favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 20
8
pts
SF SF *
@
TB TB
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
TB -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
23 - 20
7
pts
CIN CIN
@
BAL BAL *
2024-11-07 20:15 Favorite
CIN -6.0
Moderate favorite
Correct
+7 pts
34 - 35
6
pts
BUF BUF *
@
IND IND
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
IND -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+6 pts
30 - 20
5
pts
DET DET *
@
HOU HOU
2024-11-10 20:20 Favorite
HOU -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+5 pts
26 - 23
4
pts
ATL ATL *
@
NO NO
2024-11-10 13:00 Favorite
NO -3.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 20
3
pts
MIA MIA
@
LA LA *
2024-11-11 20:15 Model
MIA -2.5
Slight favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 15
2
pts
NYJ NYJ
@
ARI ARI *
2024-11-10 16:25 Model
ARI -2.0
Toss-up
Correct
+2 pts
6 - 31
1
pts
PIT PIT
@
WAS WAS *
2024-11-10 13:00 Model
PIT -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 27

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 14 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.