Pick'em Mode
Week 10Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
74
Points Earned
105
Points Possible
70.5%
Percentage
8-6
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 |
 TEN
@
 LAC
|
TEN -8.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
17 - 27
|
| 13 |
 MIN
@
 JAX
|
JAX -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
12 - 7
|
| 12 |
 NYG
@
 CAR
|
CAR -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 20
|
| 11 |
 SF
@
 TB
|
TB -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
23 - 20
|
| 10 |
 BUF
@
 IND
|
IND -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
30 - 20
|
| 9 |
 DET
@
 HOU
|
HOU -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
26 - 23
|
| 8 |
 CIN
@
 BAL
|
CIN -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
34 - 35
|
| 7 |
 NE
@
 CHI
|
NE -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
19 - 3
|
| 6 |
 MIA
@
 LA
|
MIA -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 15
|
| 5 |
 DEN
@
 KC
|
DEN -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+5 pts
14 - 16
|
| 4 |
 ATL
@
 NO
|
ATL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
17 - 20
|
| 3 |
 PIT
@
 WAS
|
PIT -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
28 - 27
|
| 2 |
 NYJ
@
 ARI
|
ARI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
6 - 31
|
| 1 |
 PHI
@
 DAL
|
PHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
34 - 6
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-14 to each pick.
1= least confident,14= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.