Pick'em Mode
Week 9Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
103
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
85.8%
Percentage
12-3
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
 MIA
@
 BUF
|
MIA -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
27 - 30
|
| 14 |
 DEN
@
 BAL
|
DEN -9.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+14 pts
10 - 41
|
| 13 |
 TB
@
 KC
|
TB -9.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
24 - 30
|
| 12 |
 LV
@
 CIN
|
LV -8.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
24 - 41
|
| 11 |
 JAX
@
 PHI
|
JAX -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+11 pts
23 - 28
|
| 10 |
 LA
@
 SEA
|
LA -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 20
|
| 9 |
 DAL
@
 ATL
|
DAL -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+9 pts
21 - 27
|
| 8 |
 NE
@
 TEN
|
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
17 - 20
|
| 7 |
 HOU
@
 NYJ
|
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+7 pts
13 - 21
|
| 6 |
 NO
@
 CAR
|
NO -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+6 pts
22 - 23
|
| 5 |
 DET
@
 GB
|
DET -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 14
|
| 4 |
 IND
@
 MIN
|
IND -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+4 pts
13 - 21
|
| 3 |
 LAC
@
 CLE
|
CLE -2.0
Toss-up
|
Correct
+3 pts
27 - 10
|
| 2 |
 WAS
@
 NYG
|
WAS -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 22
|
| 1 |
 CHI
@
 ARI
|
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
9 - 29
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick.
1= least confident,15= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.