Pick'em Mode

Week 9
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
104
Points Earned
120
Points Possible
86.7%
Percentage
12-3
Record
0
Pending
15
pts
DEN DEN
@
BAL BAL *
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
DEN -9.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+15 pts
10 - 41
14
pts
TB TB
@
KC KC *
2024-11-04 20:15 Favorite
TB -9.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+14 pts
24 - 30
13
pts
LV LV
@
CIN CIN *
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
LV -8.0
Clear favorite
Correct
+13 pts
24 - 41
12
pts
JAX JAX
@
PHI PHI *
2024-11-03 16:05 Favorite
JAX -7.5
Clear favorite
Correct
+12 pts
23 - 28
11
pts
NO NO *
@
CAR CAR
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
CAR -7.0
Clear favorite
Wrong
+0 pts
22 - 23
10
pts
IND IND
@
MIN MIN *
2024-11-03 20:20 Favorite
IND -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+10 pts
13 - 21
9
pts
MIA MIA
@
BUF BUF *
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
MIA -6.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+9 pts
27 - 30
8
pts
WAS WAS *
@
NYG NYG
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
NYG -4.5
Moderate favorite
Correct
+8 pts
27 - 22
7
pts
DAL DAL
@
ATL ATL *
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
DAL -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+7 pts
21 - 27
6
pts
NE NE
@
TEN TEN *
2024-11-03 13:00 Favorite
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
Correct
+6 pts
17 - 20
5
pts
HOU HOU
@
NYJ NYJ *
2024-10-31 20:15 Model
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+5 pts
13 - 21
4
pts
DET DET *
@
GB GB
2024-11-03 16:25 Model
GB -2.5
Slight favorite
Correct
+4 pts
24 - 14
3
pts
LAC LAC
@
CLE CLE *
2024-11-03 13:00 Model
CLE -2.0
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
27 - 10
2
pts
LA LA
@
SEA SEA *
2024-11-03 16:25 Model
SEA -1.5
Toss-up
Wrong
+0 pts
26 - 20
1
pts
CHI CHI
@
ARI ARI *
2024-11-03 16:05 Model
CHI -1.5
Toss-up
Correct
+1 pts
9 - 29

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-15 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 15 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.